Hikvision:Growth outlook on track
In-line 1H17 EPS of CNY0.36; maintaining Buy
Margin improvement offset by rising opex ratio Hikvision reported its 2Q17 results and held a conference call on July 24, 2017. 2Q17 profit was broadly in line with the DB estimate at CNY1.8bn, up 22% QoQ/24% YoY, for EPS of CNY0.2. 1H17 EPS amounted to CNY0.36, up 26% YoY. Management expected 1-3Q17 profits to grow in a range of 15-35% YoY. We maintain our Buy rating.
Margin improvement offset by rising opex ratio
In addition to 2Q17 revenue growth at 29% YoY due to continued market share gains, Hikvision delivered 2Q17 GPM of 43%, a significant improvement from 37% in 2Q16 and flat vs. 1Q17. We have been highlighting the stabilizing margin due to management efforts and improving product mix. However, the expenses ratio rose, which we attribute to the rising R&D investment for the innovation businesses and overseas business expansions. Non-op contribution was lower due to CNY88mn forex losses and slower growth in VAT tax return.
Growth across all product segments with stronger overseas business
In terms of 1H17 product breakdown, front-end equipment remains the largest revenue contributor at 52%, up 25% YoY. The “innovation” business (which consists of Ezvits, auto and robots products) grew the strongest at almost three times YoY from a low base. On geographical breakdown, the overseas business (30% in 1H17) continued to lead the growth at 38% YoY due to share gain, while GPM expanded to 50% with rising solution/project contribution (from 20% in 2016 to 30% in 1H17).
2H17 outlook remains positive
Hikvision is positive on the 2H17 outlook driven by the domestic business recovery, particularly in public safety and transportation, while being cautious on overseas business with growth deceleration due to unstable economies. Management expects GPM to sustain into 2H17 and we attribute this to improving product mix and mild competition. However, opex ratio should rise vs. 2016 on an increase in R&D expenses for new businesses, while selling expenses is on the rise to set up overseas offices to target the project/solution business. Currently, we expect 2017 revenue/profit to grow 28%/28% as higher GPM is being offset by the rising opex ratio with 2017 EPS of CNY1.04.
Valuation and risk
We maintain BUY and raise our TP from CNY27.3 (50% stock dividend issued on our prior TP of CNY41) to CNY34.5, as we raise 2017/18/19 earnings estimates by 4%/12%/12% to reflect a stronger growth outlook and roll over valuation from 25x 2H17-1H18 to 25x 2018E PE. Our target multiple of 25x remains unchanged and is supported by 34%/36% ROE and 28%/33% earnings growth in 2017/2018, respectively. Risks: market share loss and weak demand.