Huace Film&TV:Buy on dip,new stock incentive plan to drive earnings in the next three years

Three-year stock option incentive plan is a boost to earnings.

    Huace has announced a stock option incentive plan for its management andsenior staff. Total options will be 40 million, accounting for 2.29% of total shares,which will be exercised within the next 36 months by portion of 40%/30%/30%.

    Meanwhile, the company also announced its guaranteed profit for the next threeyears. Net profit for 2017 will be no less than RMB 650m and revenue will be noless than RMB 5.2bn.

    TV drama ASP "mix up" to drive earnings growth in 2017E and 2018E.

    As the leader in TV drama production in China, we believe Huace will continue todrive its earnings through high-quality TV drama. Huace has announced a totalof 31 pipeline TV dramas for 2017, and management also guided that mixed ASPfor TV dramas will increase in 2017; for example, they will increase the volume ofTV drama with a per episode price of over RMB 10m and will decrease the outputof TV drama with a per episode price of between RMB 4-8m. We are expectingTV drama revenue to grow 20%, mainly due to the ASP increase.

    Earnings are likely to lean more towards 2H17.

    Management guided that 1H17 is not likely to reflect the growth guidance forthe full year (RMB 650m implies full-year growth of 36% yoy) because some ofthe TV drama revenue/profit recognition will be delayed in 2H17. As a result,more revenue/profit will be recognized in 2H17. Looking at the full year of 2017,management seems to be confident of delivering earnings of RMB 650m, asguided in its stock incentive plan.

    More prudent on movie/entertainment show investment.

    2016's movie market was tough for upstream content providers. Huace jointlyparticipated in the distribution/production of nine movies in 2016. We believethe company will be more prudent on the distribution/content investment inthe movie segment in 2017. In addition, the entertainment show sector is verycompetitive in China and a high audience rate doesn't necessarily guarantee profit(only 7% gross margin in 2016). Therefore, management also guided down onthe earnings contribution of the entertainment show business in 2017E. We onlyfactored in 20% and 15% growth for the movie and entertainment show business,respectively, in 2017E.