China Environmental:Trip takeaways from Environmental tour in Beijing/Anhui/Jiangsu

类别:投资策略 机构:德意志银行 研究员:Thomas Zhu,Michael Tong 日期:2018-01-18

Two-day Environmental tour in Beijing/Anhui/Jiangsu.

    We hosted a two-day Environmental and Renewables tour in Beijing, Anhui andJiangsu. For the Environmental part, we visited facilities including a sponge cityPPP project, a waste collection (sanitation) management centre, a waste transferstation, a biomass treatment plant, and a hazardous waste treatment plant. Wesummarize the key takeaways below.

    Tongzhou sponge city PPP project of Beijing Enterprises Water (371 HK).

    The sponge city project of Tongzhou is part of the Tongzhou PPP package thatBEW won in 2016, which carries a total investment of ~RMB17bn. The spongecity project focuses on preventing waterlogging and diverting rain from sewage.

    BEW’s PPP projects are distinguished by its tailor-made solutions and superiordesign achieved by engaging first-class design institutes. The sponge city projectshould be completed by end 2018, while the completion timing for other projectsin the Tongzhou PPP package is not yet finalized. If the government wants toadd more projects to the package and if there is a cost overrun as a result, BEWbelieves that it can re-negotiate the terms with the government. BEW has yet notcollected payment from the government as the sponge city project is still in theconstruction stage.

    Huaiyuan biomass treatment project of China Everbright Greentech (1257 HK)and China Everbright Intl (257 HK).

    The Huaiyuan project achieved very high utilization in 2017 and managementbelieves that it can consistently achieve stable utilization by properly blendingagricultural waste with forestry residuals and wooded plates. Nominal rawmaterials cost rose slightly in 2017 (compared with 2016) as result of increasedusage of straws, but effective raw materials cost was flat after taking into accountgovernment subsidies for straws. Management expects effective raw materialcosts to be flat compared with 2018. The Huaiyuan project has an exclusive rightto operate biomass treatment within the county. The project is negotiating withlocal government to convert itself (from a power only project) to a power/heat cogenerationproject. Management believes that if such conversion takes place, itwill become more profitable as thermal efficiency should improve. Managementexpects additional profit to cover the conversion capex in about three months.

    Zhenjiang hazardous waste treatment project of New Universe Environment(436 HK).

    The hazardous waste treatment (HWT) incineration facilities run at 100%utilization and management expects the HWT landfill project to also run at ~100%if management has not intentionally refused waste from other cities (due to the scarcity of landfill capacities). Treatment fees have been stable over the pastfew years and management expects treatment fees to be flattish in the nearfuture unless there is a change in government policy or components of thewaste in-feeds. In the longer run, management expects the treatment fees todecline gradually as other treatment facilities within the province ramp up andas competition from new entrants intensifies. Management expects profitabilityto normalize to 25-30% (net margin) in the long run. Industrial customers usuallyprepay waste treatment fees.

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投资评级

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长安汽车 持有 12.08 研报
九州通 中性 -- 研报
清水源 持有 -- 研报
中微公司 买入 -- 研报
华泰证券 买入 -- 研报
新华保险 买入 -- 研报
海通证券 持有 -- 研报
中信证券 买入 -- 研报
恒力石化 持有 -- 研报
中泰化学 持有 -- 研报
光环新网 持有 -- 研报

盈利预测

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股票名称11年EPS12年EPS研报
长安汽车 0.45 0.25 研报
九州通 0.32 0.30 研报
清水源 0 0 研报
新华保险 0.83 0.97 研报
海通证券 0.44 0.36 研报
华泰证券 0.47 0.35 研报
中信证券 0.73 0.42 研报
恒力石化 0.13 0 研报
光环新网 0 0 研报
中泰化学 0.55 0.41 研报

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中信证券 34 持有 买入
五粮液 28 持有 买入
上汽集团 27 买入 中性
贵州茅台 27 持有 买入
隆基股份 27 买入 买入
华泰证券 26 持有 买入
中顺洁柔 26 持有 中性
通威股份 25 买入 买入
三一重工 24 持有 买入
中国国旅 24 持有 持有
万科A 24 买入 买入
伊利股份 23 持有 中性
芒果超媒 23 买入 持有
恒瑞医药 22 买入 持有
格力电器 22 持有 买入
中信证券 21 持有 买入
保利地产 21 买入 买入

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行业名称关注度关注股票数买入评级数
电子信息 486 82 253
汽车制造 405 33 238
钢铁行业 389 29 233
化工行业 320 56 113
电子器件 294 51 172
生物制药 280 45 160
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建筑建材 252 38 120
机械行业 210 42 82
交通运输 209 23 99
房地产 204 24 145
有色金属 194 44 72
家电行业 190 13 122
服装鞋类 188 18 98
煤炭行业 163 26 87
酒店旅游 156 20 52
商业百货 150 21 83