2018outlook:The Best Way to Predict the Future is to Create it

Our view on major economies

    The world economy has enjoyed a synchronized recovery in 2017. The growth of most major economies strengthened while inflation pressures remained muted and unemployment rate had a decline. With afocus on US, Eurozone, Japan and Chinawe expectthe following key trendsin 2018: 1) steady growth momentum should continue; 2) monetary policies would further converge, as the Fed, the ECB, the BoJ and the PBOC all scale back their monetary easing; 3) We do not expect massive fiscal policy to take place other than in US which is set to the beneficiary of tax reform; 4). political risks, such as US mid-term elections in November 2018; several elections related events in major Eurozone countries; and notably Brexit, could still linger and adds some uncertainties. Weexpect US to outshine other major economies and China’s growth with quality to bear fruits in medium term.