China Environmental:Key takeaway from biomass industry specialist call

类别:投资策略 机构:德意志银行 研究员:Thomas Zhu,Michael Tong 日期:2018-02-12

We invited Kaidi Ecological (China’s largest biomass treatment company) to talkabout updates and outlook on China's biomass treatment market. We summarizethe key takeaways below.

    Our sector top pick remains China Everbright Intl (257 HK), which we like forimproving earnings quality and improving free cashflow profile. For more details,please refer to China Environmental: Stronger enforcement, improving cashflow;raising CEI EPS, Target Price, 13 November 2017.

    Policy updates.

    China is vigorously promoting biomass heat/power cogeneration projects, whilenot strongly encouraging power-only projects. Government targets to increasecogeneration capacity significantly in Northern China, yet has no such plan inSouthern China. China has recently scrapped regulations that require 1) there canbe only one biomass treatment project in one county or within a radius of 100km; 2) capacity for biomass power projects cannot exceed 30MW. Kaidi believesthat China’s target to have 13.12GW of biomass capacity installed by 2020 isachievable, if we also include the equivalent power generation capacity fromcogeneration projects.

    Raw material cost.

    The company was able to maintain biomass raw material cost stable in the past10 years, through long-term materials supply contracts, logistics management,intermediary layers elimination, and automated operation.

    Operations.

    Burning forestry residuals and wooden wastes is generally more profitable thanburning straws currently. However, most biomass plants still burn a mix ofdifferent raw materials, as it is hardly feasible to burn only one kind of rawmaterial. The profitability of biomass power plant differs from one county toanother, and there is no general rule on project profitability comparison forNorthern China versus Southern China. Most projects of Kaidi have exclusiverights to operate within a county.

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投资评级

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中际旭创 买入 40.00 研报
德邦股份 持有 -- 研报
圆通速递 买入 -- 研报
顺丰控股 买入 -- 研报
韵达股份 买入 -- 研报
国星光电 中性 -- 研报
海利尔 持有 -- 研报
广信股份 持有 -- 研报
扬农化工 买入 -- 研报
长青股份 买入 -- 研报
华泰证券 持有 -- 研报

盈利预测

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股票名称11年EPS12年EPS研报
中际旭创 0.00 0.70 研报
德邦股份 0 0 研报
圆通速递 0.88 0.76 研报
顺丰控股 0.42 0.66 研报
韵达股份 0.18 0.18 研报
国星光电 0.67 0.38 研报
广信股份 0 0 研报
海利尔 0 0 研报
长青股份 0.64 0.73 研报
扬农化工 0.85 1.03 研报
东方通 0 0 研报

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中信证券 34 持有 持有
通威股份 32 买入 持有
贵州茅台 31 持有 买入
隆基股份 31 买入 持有
华泰证券 31 持有 持有
中信证券 30 持有 持有
伊利股份 30 持有 买入
万科A 30 买入 买入
上汽集团 29 持有 买入
格力电器 29 持有 买入
五粮液 29 持有 买入
三一重工 28 持有 中性
泸州老窖 28 持有 买入
当升科技 28 持有 持有
中顺洁柔 27 持有 买入
美的集团 26 持有 买入
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电子信息 627 88 319
汽车制造 566 36 318
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建筑建材 474 52 216
电子器件 423 56 244
钢铁行业 406 28 176
化工行业 397 61 112
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电力行业 240 31 74
交通运输 233 26 121
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