China Solar:Cost leadership is key;Buy GCL-Poly

类别:投资策略 机构:德意志银行 研究员:Michael Tong,Luka Zhu 日期:2018-02-05

A market for selective players; Buy GCL-Poly.

    Rapid capacity expansion despite stable demand will create price pressuresahead, which is to be expected for a subsidized industry in which pricereduction is the key to long-term success. Low-cost, high-efficiency producersshould consolidate their leadership and GCL-Poly is well placed to achieve this.

    Almost fully converted to diamond wire cutting and with cheaper in-house polysupply, it has a >15% cost advantage over peers, driving a 13% earningsCAGR. Trading on 0.8x PB and a PE of just 7x, the shares are at a substantialdiscount to its closest peer, Longi (4.6x PB and 13x PE). We raise our forecastsby 14-25% and our TP to HK$1.70. Buy.

    Demand: stable and resilient after a strong spike in 2017.

    Global solar installation jumped +36% to 105GW in 2017 and we expect solardemand to stay resilient and grow a mild 2% to 107GW in 2018. We staypositive on China’s solar capacity outlook and expect 50GW installation in2018 (only a mild retreat yoy), supported by rising distributed PV, povertyalleviation projects, and rush installation ahead of a tariff cut in 2019. Throughto 2020, we forecast a global demand CAGR of 9%, driven by growth in Indiaand other emerging markets, as well as a recovery in the US/EU. Demand alsolooks healthy in the longer term after reaching grid parity in more countries.

    Supply: more new capacity addition leads to consolidation opportunities.

    We forecast c.20% wafer oversupply this year due to accelerated capacityexpansion (+15%/27% in 17/18). This will be driven by both Mono-Si players(+>80%) and an additional 20% from Multi-si players converting to diamondwire cutting. Conversely, poly supply should remain tight until 3Q18, given thatnew capacity ramp-ups are mainly scheduled for later in the year. In anoversupplied wafer market, price dynamics will squeeze small-scale playersand those multi-si producers using high-cost slurry wire cutting. We expectwafer prices to continue to drop in 2018/19 (-11% p.a.). This should ultimatelyforce out inefficient producers, with a larger market share taken by the lowproduction-cost leaders.

    GCL-Poly stands out as cost leader; lifting earnings forecasts.

    Multi-Si players, by upgrading to diamond wire cutting, blacksilicon and PERC,have largely caught up with mono-Si competitors in terms of cost reductionand efficiency improvement. After adopting diamond wire conversion andexpanding in-house poly supply, GCL-Poly is further cementing its leadershipas a low-cost multi-Si wafer producer. We expect its total wafer cost to drop11% and market share to rise 3ppt to 24% in 2018. We lift our 2017-19Eearnings forecasts by 14-25% on higher wafer shipment and faster cost cuts.

    An earnings CAGR of 13% in 17-19E is mainly driven by wafer output, whilewe expect blended wafer margin to be stable with cost reductions largelyoffsetting falling ASP. Also, GCL is undergoing a deleveraging process.

数据推荐

投资评级

更多>>
股票名称最新评级目标价研报
上海医药 买入 -- 研报
新华保险 中性 -- 研报
新和成 持有 -- 研报
片仔癀 买入 -- 研报
上海银行 买入 12.30 研报
万里扬 买入 -- 研报
南方航空 持有 10.03 研报
联美控股 买入 12.54 研报
首旅酒店 持有 -- 研报
中青旅 持有 -- 研报
广州酒家 持有 -- 研报

盈利预测

评级选股>>
股票名称11年EPS12年EPS研报
上海医药 0.83 0.78 研报
新华保险 0.83 0.97 研报
新和成 1.80 1.59 研报
片仔癀 1.70 2.43 研报
顺网科技 0.60 0.66 研报
上海银行 0 0 研报
万里扬 0.89 0.29 研报
南方航空 0.66 0.36 研报
腾邦国际 0.79 0.59 研报
众信旅游 0 0 研报
首旅酒店 0.58 0.52 研报

股票关注度

更多>>
股票名称关注度平均评级最新评级
五粮液 42 持有 买入
伊利股份 39 持有 买入
完美世界 35 持有 持有
保利地产 33 买入 买入
隆基股份 32 持有 买入
贵州茅台 30 买入 买入
泸州老窖 30 持有 持有
中国国旅 29 持有 持有
三一重工 28 持有 买入
广联达 28 持有 买入
比亚迪 28 持有 持有
上汽集团 27 买入 买入
瀚蓝环境 26 持有 买入
长城汽车 26 持有 中性
海天味业 26 持有 持有
亿纬锂能 26 持有 买入
中信证券 25 持有 持有

行业关注度

更多>>
行业名称关注度关注股票数买入评级数
电子信息 513 86 252
汽车制造 411 42 225
电子器件 299 55 189
机械行业 278 57 128
生物制药 272 53 150
建筑建材 242 47 133
化工行业 235 56 109
金融行业 232 30 99
有色金属 206 41 53
酿酒行业 196 16 111
钢铁行业 190 32 89
家电行业 181 13 106
商业百货 178 36 92
酒店旅游 176 20 83
交通运输 168 32 69
房地产 162 26 104
电力行业 137 29 65