China Renewables:Takeaways from AC conference track/meetings

At our Access China 2018conference last week, besides a few Deutsche Bankcovered listed renewable players attending (Longyuan Power, Huadian Fuxin,Yangtze Power which we have published separate meeting notes), we also met 1)a renowned solar expert from the China PV Industry Association who presenteda market update and the roadmap to grid parity at our industry tracks, 2) thedirector of the National Renewable Information Management Center in charge ofgreen certificate mechanism during our environmental/renewable site tour, and3) a leading A share solar equipment player, Longi Green Energy, holding groupmeetings with investors.

    Overall, we flag several key messages with regard to China’s wind/solardevelopment outlook, which include 1) green certificate trading under amandatory basis is unlikely to start at end-2018and the consultation documentwill be released in 3Q18at the earliest, despite some details under mandatorybasis that are taking shape; 2) China’s solar capacity addition can likely sustainaround 40GW per year in 2018-20, but a rising tariff subsidy funding gap anddelayed payment are still the main concerns; 3) compared to those countriesusing Chinese solar modules but with lower tariffs, China has higher land, gridconnection, financing and quota transaction costs, other than lower utilizationhours due to grid curtailment and less sun radiations; 4) there is room for furthersolar equipment price decline (esp. poly/wafer), supported by equipment makers’aggressive capacity expansion and cost reduction efforts, and grid parity couldbe achieved at the end-user side in 2020. We provide more detailed takeawaysbelow.