China Environmental:Trip takeaways from Environmental tour in Beijing/Anhui/Jiangsu

类别:投资策略 机构:德意志银行 研究员:Thomas Zhu,Michael Tong 日期:2018-01-18

Two-day Environmental tour in Beijing/Anhui/Jiangsu.

    We hosted a two-day Environmental and Renewables tour in Beijing, Anhui andJiangsu. For the Environmental part, we visited facilities including a sponge cityPPP project, a waste collection (sanitation) management centre, a waste transferstation, a biomass treatment plant, and a hazardous waste treatment plant. Wesummarize the key takeaways below.

    Tongzhou sponge city PPP project of Beijing Enterprises Water (371 HK).

    The sponge city project of Tongzhou is part of the Tongzhou PPP package thatBEW won in 2016, which carries a total investment of ~RMB17bn. The spongecity project focuses on preventing waterlogging and diverting rain from sewage.

    BEW’s PPP projects are distinguished by its tailor-made solutions and superiordesign achieved by engaging first-class design institutes. The sponge city projectshould be completed by end 2018, while the completion timing for other projectsin the Tongzhou PPP package is not yet finalized. If the government wants toadd more projects to the package and if there is a cost overrun as a result, BEWbelieves that it can re-negotiate the terms with the government. BEW has yet notcollected payment from the government as the sponge city project is still in theconstruction stage.

    Huaiyuan biomass treatment project of China Everbright Greentech (1257 HK)and China Everbright Intl (257 HK).

    The Huaiyuan project achieved very high utilization in 2017 and managementbelieves that it can consistently achieve stable utilization by properly blendingagricultural waste with forestry residuals and wooded plates. Nominal rawmaterials cost rose slightly in 2017 (compared with 2016) as result of increasedusage of straws, but effective raw materials cost was flat after taking into accountgovernment subsidies for straws. Management expects effective raw materialcosts to be flat compared with 2018. The Huaiyuan project has an exclusive rightto operate biomass treatment within the county. The project is negotiating withlocal government to convert itself (from a power only project) to a power/heat cogenerationproject. Management believes that if such conversion takes place, itwill become more profitable as thermal efficiency should improve. Managementexpects additional profit to cover the conversion capex in about three months.

    Zhenjiang hazardous waste treatment project of New Universe Environment(436 HK).

    The hazardous waste treatment (HWT) incineration facilities run at 100%utilization and management expects the HWT landfill project to also run at ~100%if management has not intentionally refused waste from other cities (due to the scarcity of landfill capacities). Treatment fees have been stable over the pastfew years and management expects treatment fees to be flattish in the nearfuture unless there is a change in government policy or components of thewaste in-feeds. In the longer run, management expects the treatment fees todecline gradually as other treatment facilities within the province ramp up andas competition from new entrants intensifies. Management expects profitabilityto normalize to 25-30% (net margin) in the long run. Industrial customers usuallyprepay waste treatment fees.

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投资评级

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海信家电 持有 -- 研报
盛达矿业 中性 -- 研报
飞科电器 中性 -- 研报
广联达 中性 -- 研报
万华化学 买入 53.00 研报
爱柯迪 买入 -- 研报
恒瑞医药 买入 -- 研报
华东医药 买入 -- 研报
丽珠集团 持有 -- 研报
爱尔眼科 买入 -- 研报
天坛生物 买入 -- 研报

盈利预测

评级选股>>
股票名称11年EPS12年EPS研报
海信家电 0.38 0.36 研报
盛达矿业 1.04 0.75 研报
飞科电器 0 0 研报
广联达 1.09 0.91 研报
万华化学 0.92 1.01 研报
丽珠集团 1.51 1.48 研报
华东医药 0.92 1.10 研报
恒瑞医药 0.88 0.88 研报
爱柯迪 0 0 研报
爱尔眼科 0.51 0.50 研报
天坛生物 0.46 0.52 研报

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股票名称关注度平均评级最新评级
贵州茅台 39 买入 买入
保利地产 34 买入 持有
完美世界 34 持有 持有
五粮液 32 买入 买入
伊利股份 31 持有 买入
比亚迪 31 持有 中性
完美世界 30 持有 持有
广联达 28 持有 中性
万华化学 27 持有 买入
瀚蓝环境 27 持有 买入
通威股份 27 买入 买入
新宙邦 27 持有 买入
先导智能 27 持有 中性
中信证券 26 持有 中性
三一重工 26 持有 买入
上汽集团 26 买入 买入
万科A 26 买入 买入

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电子信息 632 82 338
汽车制造 461 34 276
电子器件 430 53 249
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化工行业 383 46 162
建筑建材 376 44 195
金融行业 360 24 172
生物制药 323 57 163
房地产 277 25 203
机械行业 274 52 125
食品行业 272 22 110
煤炭行业 259 28 111
酿酒行业 252 17 126
家电行业 231 14 145
商业百货 201 32 108
酒店旅游 195 20 62
有色金属 188 38 62