China Oil &Gas:DB Access China 2018conference takeaways -Wood Mackenzie

类别:行业研究 机构:德意志银行 研究员:Vitus Leung,Johnson Wan 日期:2018-01-12

Oil price. WM holds a conservative view on the oil price with Brentexpected to average USD56/bbl in 2018 and that holding above USD60/bbl will be more difficult than it seems. In the near term, the oil price is inequilibrium but global supply growth will outstrip demand growth for therest of 2018, mainly with tight oil growing 1.2m b/d and large volumescoming out in deepwater Brazil. In addition, US tight oil plays can nowconvincingly hedge their positions at USD62/bbl WTI.

    Capex. Total upstream spend should remain flat at USD400bn only mainlybecause of a huge drop in LNG spend particularly in Australia. Deep waterand unconventional will fill the gap and is expected to grow 15% yoy.

    Cost curve. The pre-FID deepwater cost-curve breakevens have fallenfrom USD78/bbl in 3Q14 to USD64/bbl in 1Q17 to USD56/bbl in 3Q17.

    The lower cost in 1Q17 is mainly due to the removal of some expensiveAngola projects. One will also see that in 2014, there was only 5b BOE ofcashflow positive reserves versus 20 bn BOE in 2017.

    Tight Oil. Output should rise 24% and 1.2m b/d to 6.2m b/d. Rapid growthwill lead to challenges and rising costs. The key to success for tight oilis productivity. A 10% fall in production destroys 60% more value than a10% in cost increase. Questions continue to be asked about whether tightoil can break even. The volume of undrilled liquid resource in the Permianhas increased with 13b BOE under USD60/bbl WTI during 3Q17.

    OFS. 2018 should still be a tough year and the business model for OFScompanies needs to adjust to work in a USD50/bbl oil environment. Thebenefit will come from operators who have the best chance to lock-inrock-bottom OFS costs.

    Resource capture. Asian NOCs need to get involved with 15b of boeup for grabs. 28b boe of discovered resource is up for grabs in Iran. Inthe UAE, 700k b/d ADMA concession expires Mar 2018 with remainingreserves of 7.4b bbl. Brazil aims to offer 10b boe of deepwater DROs.



康泰生物 持有 -- 研报
智飞生物 持有 -- 研报
安科生物 持有 -- 研报
美年健康 持有 -- 研报
片仔癀 持有 -- 研报
龙马环卫 持有 -- 研报
杰克股份 买入 -- 研报
康尼机电 买入 -- 研报
华测检测 买入 -- 研报
洛阳钼业 持有 9.88 研报
盛和资源 持有 23.04 研报


分众传媒 0 0 研报
捷成股份 1.05 0.80 研报
苏宁云商 0.70 0.56 研报
潮宏基 0.81 0.93 研报
武汉中商 0.36 0.30 研报
飞亚达A 0.42 0.40 研报
新华都 0.65 0.35 研报
金一文化 0 0 研报
合肥百货 0.90 0.68 研报
鄂武商A 0.72 0.75 研报
海印股份 0.84 0.99 研报


贵州茅台 33 持有 持有
清新环境 33 持有 持有
桐昆股份 32 持有 买入
中国国旅 30 持有 买入
五粮液 28 持有 持有
先导智能 28 持有 持有
伊利股份 26 持有 持有
东江环保 26 持有 持有
聚光科技 26 持有 持有
生物股份 25 持有 持有
海大集团 25 持有 持有
三一重工 24 持有 持有
保利地产 24 持有 持有
通威股份 24 持有 中性
中青旅 23 持有 持有
锦江股份 23 持有 买入
华东医药 23 持有 中性


电子信息 604 103 153
机械行业 426 77 135
生物制药 399 59 136
化工行业 327 68 112
酿酒行业 316 18 55
酒店旅游 303 25 101
房地产 296 44 105
食品行业 290 28 64
金融行业 286 28 114
农林牧渔 277 35 139
汽车制造 272 43 64
交通运输 263 39 82
建筑建材 259 51 129
环保行业 227 21 42
电子器件 206 54 51
钢铁行业 198 35 63
服装鞋类 187 25 54