Metals &Mining:Commerce Department seeks duties on imports of aluminum sheet from China

类别:行业研究 机构:德意志银行 研究员:德意志银行研究所 日期:2017-12-06

Commerce Department self-initiates, alleged dumping margin 57-60%

    Typically, antidumping (AD) and countervailing duties (CVD) begin after petitionsare filed by a domestic industry reacting to imports that are either 'dumped' or'unfairly subsidized'. However, in this case, the Commerce Department (CD) hasbegun an investigation against common alloy aluminum sheet based on its ownevidence that China's exports may be materially injuring, or threatening materialinjury to, the common alloy sheet industry in the US. This is the first time a selfinitiationhas occurred in 26years. While the CD investigates dumping marginsof 56.54-59.72%, the International Trade Commission's (ITC) will conduct its owninvestigation. The ITC's preliminary determination is expected by January 16,2018. If the ITC determines injury or a threat of injury, the CD investigationscan continue. A preliminary CVD determination is scheduled for February 2018and a preliminary AD determination is scheduled for April 2018. If the CD findsdumping or unfair subsidization has occurred, US Customs and Border Protectioncan collect cash deposits from companies importing the subject aluminum sheetfrom China. Final determinations by the CD are scheduled for April 2018for CVD,and July 2018for the AD.

    What is common alloy aluminum sheet?

    The sheet under investigation is typically used in construction (gutters anddownspouts), transportation (trailers, traffic signs and license plates) and kitchenappliances. More specifically the imports under investigation are flat-rolledaluminum having thickness of 0.2-6.3mm, in coils or cut-to-length. Excluded fromthe investigation is aluminum can stock (used in beverage cans production). In2016, 275kt (607m lbs) of common alloy sheet was imported from China and wasvalued at $604m. Year to date through September imports have grown to 279kt(615m lbs, +34% YoY), if annualized this would indicate 35% YoY growth to 372kt(820m lbs).

    Possible beneficiaries

    Alcoa, Arconic, Constellium and Kaiser Aluminum all have the ability to producethe commodity grade aluminum sheet under investigation. However, eachcurrently produces negligible, if any, amounts of the material. We believe importsfrom other countries could replace lost imports from China, rather than domesticproducers seeing entire benefit. Primary aluminum producers (Alcoa and CenturyAluminum) are unlikely to benefit on a volume basis, but could see improvedregional premia pricing.



中信证券 持有 -- 研报
华泰证券 中性 -- 研报
招商证券 中性 -- 研报
中信证券 中性 -- 研报
华策影视 持有 -- 研报
安达维尔 持有 20.79 研报
杉杉股份 持有 -- 研报
长园集团 持有 -- 研报
亿纬锂能 持有 -- 研报
金风科技 持有 -- 研报
国轩高科 持有 -- 研报


国睿科技 0.50 0.77 研报
中航沈飞 0.54 0 研报
杰赛科技 0.57 0.56 研报
四创电子 0.48 0.47 研报
中航电测 0.59 0.52 研报
中航机电 0.51 0.50 研报
中航电子 0.46 0.37 研报
中直股份 0.38 0.37 研报
中国卫星 0.35 0.34 研报
内蒙一机 0.57 0.84 研报
中信证券 0.73 0.42 研报


洋河股份 32 持有 买入
先导智能 31 持有 持有
水井坊 30 持有 持有
山西汾酒 30 持有 买入
中炬高新 30 持有 买入
伊利股份 30 持有 买入
分众传媒 30 持有 买入
恒立液压 29 持有 买入
五粮液 29 持有 持有
中信证券 28 持有 持有
三一重工 28 持有 持有
上汽集团 28 持有 持有
烽火通信 28 持有 持有
泸州老窖 28 持有 买入
金风科技 28 持有 持有
碧水源 28 持有 持有
博世科 28 持有 持有


电子信息 968 105 274
生物制药 643 74 108
汽车制造 629 42 166
机械行业 617 75 162
化工行业 587 56 163
农林牧渔 511 32 184
金融行业 478 28 212
食品行业 459 32 171
房地产 441 43 130
交通运输 440 37 79
酿酒行业 427 17 102
建筑建材 393 47 176
电子器件 352 62 106
酒店旅游 293 23 106
钢铁行业 290 22 120
商业百货 288 48 84
环保行业 288 18 63