Metals &Mining:Commerce Department seeks duties on imports of aluminum sheet from China

类别:行业研究 机构:德意志银行 研究员:德意志银行研究所 日期:2017-12-06

Commerce Department self-initiates, alleged dumping margin 57-60%

    Typically, antidumping (AD) and countervailing duties (CVD) begin after petitionsare filed by a domestic industry reacting to imports that are either 'dumped' or'unfairly subsidized'. However, in this case, the Commerce Department (CD) hasbegun an investigation against common alloy aluminum sheet based on its ownevidence that China's exports may be materially injuring, or threatening materialinjury to, the common alloy sheet industry in the US. This is the first time a selfinitiationhas occurred in 26years. While the CD investigates dumping marginsof 56.54-59.72%, the International Trade Commission's (ITC) will conduct its owninvestigation. The ITC's preliminary determination is expected by January 16,2018. If the ITC determines injury or a threat of injury, the CD investigationscan continue. A preliminary CVD determination is scheduled for February 2018and a preliminary AD determination is scheduled for April 2018. If the CD findsdumping or unfair subsidization has occurred, US Customs and Border Protectioncan collect cash deposits from companies importing the subject aluminum sheetfrom China. Final determinations by the CD are scheduled for April 2018for CVD,and July 2018for the AD.

    What is common alloy aluminum sheet?

    The sheet under investigation is typically used in construction (gutters anddownspouts), transportation (trailers, traffic signs and license plates) and kitchenappliances. More specifically the imports under investigation are flat-rolledaluminum having thickness of 0.2-6.3mm, in coils or cut-to-length. Excluded fromthe investigation is aluminum can stock (used in beverage cans production). In2016, 275kt (607m lbs) of common alloy sheet was imported from China and wasvalued at $604m. Year to date through September imports have grown to 279kt(615m lbs, +34% YoY), if annualized this would indicate 35% YoY growth to 372kt(820m lbs).

    Possible beneficiaries

    Alcoa, Arconic, Constellium and Kaiser Aluminum all have the ability to producethe commodity grade aluminum sheet under investigation. However, eachcurrently produces negligible, if any, amounts of the material. We believe importsfrom other countries could replace lost imports from China, rather than domesticproducers seeing entire benefit. Primary aluminum producers (Alcoa and CenturyAluminum) are unlikely to benefit on a volume basis, but could see improvedregional premia pricing.



飞科电器 买入 -- 研报
莱克电气 持有 -- 研报
青岛海尔 买入 -- 研报
海信电器 买入 -- 研报
老板电器 买入 -- 研报
九阳股份 持有 -- 研报
三花智控 买入 -- 研报
华帝股份 买入 -- 研报
苏泊尔 买入 -- 研报
格力电器 买入 -- 研报
TCL集团 持有 -- 研报


飞科电器 0 0 研报
苏泊尔 0.88 0.81 研报
TCL集团 0.12 0.11 研报
华帝股份 0.65 0.63 研报
海信电器 1.41 1.41 研报
三花智控 1.34 0.72 研报
九阳股份 0.84 0.67 研报
莱克电气 0 0 研报
老板电器 0.78 0.94 研报
青岛海尔 1.36 1.15 研报
格力电器 1.84 2.20 研报


上汽集团 38 持有 买入
华鲁恒升 37 持有 买入
五粮液 37 持有 持有
金风科技 37 持有 买入
三一重工 36 持有 买入
烽火通信 35 持有 持有
贵州茅台 33 持有 持有
保利地产 32 买入 买入
上汽集团 32 持有 买入
万科A 32 持有 买入
泸州老窖 32 持有 持有
金风科技 32 持有 买入
中信证券 31 持有 买入
山西汾酒 31 持有 持有
中国国旅 31 持有 买入
太阳纸业 31 持有 中性
洋河股份 31 持有 持有


电子信息 897 107 419
汽车制造 563 39 240
生物制药 519 71 248
金融行业 473 32 151
化工行业 451 59 229
机械行业 450 61 218
酿酒行业 404 18 185
电子器件 380 65 203
商业百货 348 47 160
建筑建材 328 44 182
酒店旅游 321 20 149
食品行业 304 24 119
交通运输 304 35 171
房地产 287 35 173
钢铁行业 255 26 84
服装鞋类 240 27 134
其它行业 216 27 116