Hong Kong Banks:Oct'17stats,Deposit growth still lags behind,cost of funds on the rise...

类别:行业研究 机构:德意志银行 研究员:Franco Lam 日期:2017-12-06

Key monthly trends (rates, loan/deposit growth, deposit cost)

    HKMA's latest stats showed a significant pickup in lending, helped by IPOactivities, outpacing deposit growth by 1.1% in Oct. LDR further tightened to73% (Dec'16: 68%), the highest since Mar'15. Because of tighter liquidity fromIPO and LDR, the key negative was that the average cost of funds also spikedsignificantly, which could dilute margin benefits from higher rates.

    Share prices not factoring in potential increase in cost of funds?

    In the past week, HK banks have risen 4% (outperforming the HSI by 6% andthe MSCI HK by 4%) on the back of a higher HIBOR, media reports about astock connect crackdown and potential rotation from tech names. BoCHK hasrisen the most, as it had been a laggard since its results, underperforming theHSI by 6%. We stay cautious on HK Financials, with Sells for BoCHK, BEA andHKEx. Dah Sings remain our only Buys, on discounted valuation vs. peers. Webelieve the market has largely ignored that a higher HIBOR/tighter LDR canalso lead to a higher cost of funds, diluting the margin benefit, notwithstandingthat HK Banks stand low in GP buffer in case of asset quality deterioration.

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