Metals &Mining Alert:Daily prices and news,Nickel market deficit expected to continue into 2018

类别:行业研究 机构:德意志银行 研究员:Jorge Beristain,Chris Terry 日期:2017-11-14

Industrials (/lb): aluminum $0.98 (+0.8%), copper $3.19 (+0.4%), lead $1.12 (-1.3%), molybdenum $7.14 (+0.0%); nickel $5.44 (+1.1%); zinc $1.44 (+1.5%);Precious (/oz): gold $1,277 (-0.4%), silver $16.89 (-1.2%); Steel (/mt): ChinaHRC $632 (-0.2%), SHFE Rebar $562 (+1.0%), MB Scrap Index $295 (-0.8%);Bulks: iron ore (/dmt) $62 (+0.7%), coking coal (/mt) $178 (+0.0%), freight (BCI)3,202 (+0.5%); Energy: Brent (/bbl) $58.33 (+1.7%), WTI (/bbl) $52.47 (+1.1%),natural gas (/mmBtu) $2.97 (-0.6%), thermal coal (/t) $97 (+0.7%).

    Global nickel market is expected to continue third consecutive year of deficit in2018, per International Nickel Study Group (INSG). Demand from stainlesssteel industry is expected to increase, along with production of nickelcontainingbatteries. Global demand expected at 2.26mt in 2018 (vs. supply of2.21mt), implying a 53kt deficit. For 2017, INSG expects demand at 2.15mt (vs.

    supply of 2.05mt), with a 98kt deficit. INSG expects demand from stainlesssteel to moderate in 2H17, but demand from Electric Vehicle batteries to havea positive effect in 2018. (Mining Weekly)Philippines Environment Minister hopes to eradicate ban on open-pit mining byYE17 after a government panel recommended its removal. Although open-pitmining is allowed under the mining laws in Philippines, former EnvironmentMinster Regina Lopez banned it during her tenure, citing environmentaldegradation. With the majority of the panel supporting the removal of the ban,the proposal will be presented at a Cabinet meeting in early November.

    Philippines is the world’s largest nickel ore exporter. (Reuters)Brazil’s congressional committee approve one set of mining reforms, favoringsmall miners and amending President, Mr. Michel Temer’s proposal. Royaltyrates raised to 4% for large iron ore miners (previous proposal was 2-4%dependent on prices), whereas small miners running losses and mining poorquality ore will be allowed to pay 2%. Votes on the other 2 proposals(overhauling regulations and creating a new government agency to overseemining) have been delayed to Wednesday. (Reuters)US steel import permits for October through 10/24 total 2.4m st. If adjusted toa full month, permits would be 3.1m st (+13% YoY) vs. September permits of3.1m st and August imports of 3.4m st. Line pipe (-58kt, -25%) appears todecrease the most MoM, followed by coated sheets (-50kt, -13%), whereas,rebar (+40kt, +42%) and semi-finished (+26kt, +4%) permits are increasing.

    (US Import Administration)Hindustan Zinc hedges 25% of annual zinc output for first time in history. CEO,Sunil Duggal, expects zinc shortage to persist for next few quarters, keepingthe price between $3,000-3,500/t ($1.36-1.59/lb). Company has hedged 300ktof zinc at $3,084/t ($1.4/lb) and expects global demand to rise by 3% in 2017,thereby underpinning price in the medium-term. CEO believes the shortfall willpersist even if Glencore restarts operations. (Mining Weekly)

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