Railcar &PetroChemical Update:US Chemical Shipments up 6.1%.Ethane up 1c/gal to 27c/gal

类别:行业研究 机构:德意志银行 研究员:David Begleiter 日期:2017-11-14

Railcar loadings 4-week moving average +6.1%. Weekly loadings up 6.9%

    The 4-week moving avg of chemical railcar loadings increased 6.1% in Week#43(ended 10/21/2017) vs. a 4.7% increase the prior week. Loadings YTD areup 0.8%. Chemical railcar loadings represent 20% of total US chemicalshipment tonnage (followed by trucks, barges, and pipelines), offering a trendof broader chemical industry activity and demand. The more volatile measureof weekly loadings increased 6.9% YoY (versus a 6.2% increase in the priorweek) and decreased 0.5% sequentially (vs. a 0.7% decrease in the prior week).

    Ethane prices up 1.2c/gal to 27.0c/gal. Propane up 7.6c/lb to 98.0c/gal

    Ethane prices rose 1.2c/gal last week to 27.0c/gal (vs its fuel value of 20c/gal). While US ethane supply/demand (s/d) fundamentals remain loose,ethane rejection, which peaked at 500-600k bpd in 1H16, has declinedfollowing the September ’16start-up of Enterprise Products 200k bpd ethaneexport facility in Houston. Starting in Q4’17, we expect US ethane s/dfundamentals to tighten further, driven by 600k bpd of new demand from thestart-up of 8greenfield ethylene crackers in ’17-’19. As the market tightens,we expect ethane to trade toward its historical premium of ~10c/gal vs its fuelvalue, with the premium reflecting fractionation, transportation and storagecosts. Based on DB’s ’17US Natural Gas price forecast of $2.93/MMBtu, weestimate ethane prices will likely move toward 30c/gal by year-end ‘17.

    Propane prices rose 7.6c/lb last week to 98.0c/gal. While propane inventorieswere down 2% last week to 78MM bbls, they are 17% and 9% below their 3and 5-yr avgs, respectively. Longer term, we expect propane inventories todecline due to higher exports (+20% in ’16vs up 12% in ‘15, up in ’17E).

    Spot ethylene down 1.6c/lb to 28.2c/lb. Margins down 1.7c/lb to 11.5c/lb

    Spot ethylene prices fell 1.6c/lb last week to 28.2c/lb (vs the Septembercontract price of 35.25c/lb). Spot deals for October ranged from 27.375to29.0c/lb with deals for November ranged between 27.5-28.25c/lb. Averagespot ethylene margins compressed 1.7c/lb last week to 11.2c/lb on lowerselling prices and higher production costs.

    Polymer grade (PG) propylene spot prices were lower last week with deals forOctober delivery at 44.5-45.5c/lb. October propylene contract prices settled up1.5c/lb at 48.0c/lb for PG and 46.5c/lb for chemical grade. This follows a 7c/lb increase in September. The 8.5c/lb, or 21%, increase in propylene pricesin September and October has been driven by supply tightness due to theHurrricane Harvery which caused outages at multiple US Gulf Coast olefinsand refinieres as well as delaying a new propane dehydrogenation (PDH) unitwhich had been scheduled to start up in September.

    ~11% of North American ethylene capacity expected to be offline in November

    Per IHS, CP Chem’s Cedar Bayou, TX cracker (2.1% of North American {NA}ethylene capacity) and Sweeny, TX cracker (0.6% of NA ethylene capacity), andEquistar’s La Porte, TX cracker (3.1% of NA ethylene capacity) remain offline asa result of Hurricane Harvey. Dow’s Taft, LA (#1) cracker (1.6% of NA ethylenecapacity), Dow’s Taft, LA (#2) cracker (1% of NA ethylene capacity) and Shell’sDeer Park, TX cracker (3% of NA ethlylene capacity) will be offline in Novemberfor planned turnaround work. For ’17, IHS forecasts NA ethylene productionlosses of 5.2B lbs, or 6.3%, of capacity. This compares to 4.5B lbs, or 5.5%, ofcapacity in ’16and 3.1B lbs, or 4.1%, of ethylene capacity in ’15.

数据推荐

投资评级

更多>>
股票名称最新评级目标价研报
千禾味业 买入 23.45 研报
铁汉生态 持有 -- 研报
中国中车 持有 -- 研报
柳工 买入 -- 研报
风语筑 买入 86.46 研报
中青旅 买入 29.76 研报
科恒股份 中性 -- 研报
新疆城建 买入 -- 研报
中泰化学 持有 17.24 研报
信质电机 持有 36.00 研报
理邦仪器 中性 -- 研报

盈利预测

评级选股>>
股票名称11年EPS12年EPS研报
分众传媒 0 0 研报
捷成股份 1.05 0.82 研报
苏宁云商 0.70 0.59 研报
潮宏基 0.81 0.97 研报
武汉中商 0.36 0.32 研报
飞亚达A 0.42 0.42 研报
新华都 0.65 0.37 研报
金一文化 0 0 研报
合肥百货 0.89 0.71 研报
鄂武商A 0.72 0.76 研报
海印股份 0.84 1.00 研报

股票关注度

更多>>
股票名称关注度平均评级最新评级
清新环境 37 持有 持有
恒瑞医药 30 持有 持有
中兴通讯 29 持有 持有
聚光科技 29 持有 买入
中国国旅 28 持有 持有
清新环境 27 持有 持有
伊利股份 27 持有 持有
万科A 27 持有 持有
汇川技术 27 持有 持有
烽火通信 26 持有 买入
启迪桑德 26 持有 持有
洋河股份 26 持有 持有
先导智能 26 持有 持有
保利地产 25 持有 持有
宇通客车 25 持有 买入
贵州茅台 25 持有 持有
锦江股份 25 持有 持有

行业关注度

更多>>
行业名称关注度关注股票数买入评级数
电子信息 1058 122 250
生物制药 708 74 252
机械行业 627 96 181
化工行业 558 70 179
汽车制造 539 52 125
食品行业 537 36 180
酿酒行业 483 20 107
建筑建材 482 57 233
金融行业 446 31 171
交通运输 434 47 140
农林牧渔 427 38 193
电子器件 421 71 98
房地产 396 54 128
环保行业 369 22 70
煤炭行业 367 36 97
酒店旅游 338 26 138
家电行业 322 20 93