Alibaba Group:Buy,E-commerce giant taking market share

Fast growth at impressive scale. Alibaba continues to execute flawlessly, growingrapidly in its core China Retail business with resilient margins, while expanding cloudand investing in future growth. In particular, excluding Intime and Hema, China Retailcustomer management and commission revenue grew 57% y-o-y to RMB37bn(USD5.6bn) and Core Commerce EBITDA margins were 57%. Tmall GMV grew 49%y-o-y, with accelerating growth in consumer electronics and FMCG. Alibaba launched88Loyalty Membership to reward those who spend time and money on Tmall andTaobao. Alibaba Cloud added 245new products in the quarter, mostly aimed at largeenterprises. In New Retail, it has already integrated Intime’s customer data and willintegrate all its merchandise products to enable a seamless online and offlineexperience. Hema has reached 20stores and future growth will come fromfranchising this new retail format for fresh food experiences. In October, Alibaba tookcontrol of Cainiao, its logistics data platform, and will invest USD15bn over 5years toestablish a global logistics infrastructure to support international growth. Alibaba willalso invest USD15bn in the next 3years on fundamental research to distance itselffrom competitors, which was already in our forecasts.

    Impressive results and higher guidance. Total revenue grew 61% y-o-y toRMB55bn (USD8bn) in 2QFY18, 5% ahead of expectations. Non-GAAP EBITDAmargins were 45%, versus our estimate of 40%, with Product Development and G&Aexpenses lower than expected. Non-GAAP EPS of RMB8.57was 27% higher thanconsensus. Specifically, Core Commerce grew 63% y-o-y, driven by China, Intimeand International. Mobile MAUs grew by 20m q-o-q to 549m while annual activebuyers reached 488m, up 22m q-o-q. Customer management revenue increased58% y-o-y as both consumers and merchants spent more. Commission revenue grew47% y-o-y due to Tmall GMV. Cloud revenue increased 99% y-o-y to RMB3bn, withEBITA margins of -4%. Free cash flow was USD3.4bn, up 62% y-o-y. Managementraised FY2018revenue guidance to 49-53% y-o-y growth (from 45-49%), to reflectCainiao, which will be consolidated in FY3Q18.

    Estimate changes. We revise forecasts to reflect Cainiao and strong 2Q results. ForFY18/19, we increase our revenue by 3/6% and EPS by 3/2% (adjusted, USD). Weexpect revenue to grow 54/37% in FY18/19. Margins will be negatively impacted byCainiao, globalization, New Retail and user acquisition and we expect EBITDA margin of39% for FY18, down 8ppts y-o-y, and a recovery to 45% in FY19. We increase our TP toUSD209from USD204to reflect higher estimates. Our TP implies FY19PE of 29X.