China Healthcare:Further execution in 19provinces

类别:行业研究 机构:国信证券(香港)金融控股有限公司 研究员:Jason Siu 日期:2017-10-12

On 20 Sept 2017, Economics Information Daily (经济参考报) reported that fouradditional provinces, namely Jiangxi, Yunnan, Gansu and Shanxi, had included 36high-priced medicines into their provincial reimbursement drug list (RDL). Thesedrug names are the same as those shortlisted by the national government on 19July. Including these four provinces, it should now have over 19 provinces to addthese 36 drugs into their RDL.

    The article highlighted that, as imported drugs can now be included into RDL at thebigger expense of selling prices, this makes the cheaper local-made medicines tobe less competitive in the market. In addition, the national government will try toimplement this bigger price cut mechanism on high-priced medicines in exchangefor their volume jump in most provinces. Coupled with good surveillance of drugcost spending, Chinese government aims to curb the over-usage of these highpriceddrugs, including monoclonal antibodies.

    The same source also cited that, with the drug cost reimbursement amount fixedby the government post negotiation, it would be unlikely to see bigger selling pricefluctuations to hospitals for these high-priced medicines. Whereby these drugs areusually (1) to treat critical and rare diseases such as cancers; and (2) hard toproduce with good barriers of entry.

    As we flagged in our 12 Sept 2017 note, we see these drugs with clinicalimportance would likely have their sales volume rebound (in particular to foreigndrugs), at the expense of their selling prices, similar to the case with GSK’sTenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate (Viread?). Consistent with national governmentpolicy, it aims to provide Chinese masses accessible to cheaper quality medicinewith good efficacies. We expect this will increase the likelihood for many provincesto introduce further price cut on domestic drugs for critical illness, such as anticancerand stroke medicines.

    Stock impact: This will dampen the sentiment of local drug-maker sector in theshort-term, despite of potential sales volume rebound for these import drugs fromsacrificing their selling prices. Same as we mentioned, we do not surprise to seefurther tough policy (such as price cut) on domestic high-priced drugs such aschemical drugs and monoclonal antibodies for anti-cancer therapy. Aside fromChina Medical System’s (867.HK, NR) XinHuoSu (新活素?; Nesiritide?), we see thismay also affect HK-listed CSPC (1093.HK, NR)’s future pricing on its Bortezomib forinjection (硼替佐米) as a first-to-market generic drug, which is currently on thathigh-priced drug list. Note that, CSPC has applied for production approval fromCFDA, likely to be on sales in the next 12 to 16 months.

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