Macau:2Q wrap,Consensus for 2H17too conservative

类别:行业研究 机构:德意志银行 研究员:德意志银行研究所 日期:2017-10-12

GGR in 2H is usually 10% higher than in 1H。

    QTD, Macau stocks have underperformed MSCI HK by 10ppt as 2Q results mostlymissed expectations. Of the 5companies reported, only Wynn delivered both GGR& EBITDA qoq growth. On 30Aug, we think Galaxy will be the next one to deliverboth GGR & EBITDA qoq growth. Recently, local checks told us that more smalljunkets are expanding footprints (Fig 4). e.g. Galaxy Macau just opened a VIP roomfor David junket in August. Historically, 2H is the high season with GGR typically10% above that in 1H. But consensus seems to be too conservative, forecasting2H17EBITDA to be merely 1% above 1H17. We think Wynn and Galaxy have thestrongest consensus upgrade potential (Fig 20). Our 2H17F EBITDA for Wynn &Galaxy is 12% above consensus. Top pick Wynn.。

    2Q17wrap: Wynn the biggest beneficiary in this Macau recovery。

    Five of the 6Macau gaming operators had reported 2Q results. Key takeaways:

    (1) In the 2Q low season, Macau GGR slipped 1% qoq as VIP (roll +4% qoq)did not grow enough to offset the seasonal softness in mass (Mass GGR -4%qoq).

    (2) Cotai continued to gain share, esp in the mass market.

    (3) Competitionsremained largely disciplined - Promotional allowances (comps) rose from 10% ofMass GGR in 1H16to 11% in 2H16after Wynn & Sands openings, but remainedlargely flattish in 1H17. That said, Cotai casino comps are noticeably higher thanPeninsula (11% vs 9% of Mass GGR), which may become a problem when moreCotai casinos open. Thankfully, other cost items such as junket commissions andlabour costs had remained stable (Figure 24).。

    2H17outlook: GGR growth slows, but not as much as the market fears。

    Consensus is expecting a sharp slowdown in GGR momentum from 29% yoy inJuly to 12% yoy in Aug-Dec. While we agree that GGR growth will slow giventougher comps, we think it will only slow to 17% yoy in Aug-Dec. We're morebullish than the Street because we’ve learnt from junkets that China's Tier-3cities are minting new VIPs as the "Shanty Town Reimbursement Plan" has beenpropping up property prices in Tier-3cities. Recall that Macau's VIP GGR is mostlycorrelated to Tier-3city property prices (75% correlation Figure 6) , and not toTier-1city property prices (Figure 5).。

    Valuation now more reasonable after pullback; key risks。

    We value Macau stocks on SOTP with target multiples on 2017e EV/EBITDA.Downside risks: a sharp slowdown in GGR momentum, a change in investorpreference from momentum stocks to value stocks and regulatory changes.Upside risks: milder-than-expected tightening of China's macro credit policy.。

数据推荐

投资评级

更多>>
股票名称最新评级目标价研报
太平鸟 持有 35.00 研报
安正时尚 买入 26.00 研报
歌力思 持有 29.75 研报
海澜之家 持有 12.50 研报
跨境通 持有 25.20 研报
南极电商 持有 15.51 研报
华友钴业 持有 104.70 研报
隆基股份 买入 -- 研报
科恒股份 持有 93.60 研报
晶盛机电 持有 20.10 研报
天齐锂业 持有 88.00 研报

盈利预测

评级选股>>
股票名称11年EPS12年EPS研报
分众传媒 0 0 研报
捷成股份 1.05 0.81 研报
新华都 0.65 0.36 研报
金一文化 0 0 研报
合肥百货 0.90 0.68 研报
苏宁云商 0.70 0.56 研报
潮宏基 0.81 0.94 研报
武汉中商 0.36 0.30 研报
飞亚达A 0.42 0.41 研报
红旗连锁 0 0.87 研报
天虹股份 0.86 0.76 研报

股票关注度

更多>>
股票名称关注度平均评级最新评级
清新环境 40 持有 持有
先导智能 35 持有 持有
桐昆股份 30 持有 买入
中兴通讯 30 持有 持有
保利地产 29 持有 持有
伊利股份 29 持有 持有
中国国旅 29 持有 买入
万科A 29 持有 持有
海大集团 29 持有 持有
贵州茅台 28 持有 持有
启迪桑德 28 持有 持有
汇川技术 27 持有 持有
聚光科技 27 持有 中性
先导智能 26 持有 持有
通威股份 26 持有 持有
烽火通信 26 持有 持有
隆基股份 26 持有 买入

行业关注度

更多>>
行业名称关注度关注股票数买入评级数
电子信息 1034 115 282
机械行业 698 87 249
化工行业 605 68 208
食品行业 604 34 175
生物制药 580 69 249
酿酒行业 560 19 122
农林牧渔 556 38 253
建筑建材 554 53 294
汽车制造 537 48 133
房地产 516 49 169
金融行业 489 36 171
交通运输 477 48 150
煤炭行业 455 34 110
环保行业 417 24 89
电子器件 379 68 94
服装鞋类 361 31 133
酒店旅游 345 27 162