Made in China:Greater China Smartphone,Sportswearaccelerating traction,Macau,EVs,Sunny

类别:行业研究 机构:德意志银行 研究员:Michael Tong 日期:2017-10-11

THEME OF THE DAY。

    Greater China smartphone - The million-dollar question on iPhone launch: profit-taking or add positions? (Birdy Lu)。

    Apple will release the new iPhone on 12 Sep. 9AM, PDT (13 Sep. 1AM, HK time). At this time of year, there is always the question of “should one take profits” or “should one add to positions”. We believe taking profits could work n-term, but taking a larger position should prevail for the long run. Historical data (Fig. 1) shows tier-one Asian iPhone suppliers tend to underperform for two months post a release event, as most new phone features have been widely anticipated. However, most of them tend to outperform after near-term bumps, as Apple impresses the world with new features in next year’s iPhone. For the 2018 new iPhone, the new feature could be the advanced AR. (Birdy Lu - 886 2 2192 2822)。

    http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/43-7013/13472860/0900b8c08d860f4d.pdf

    China Sportswear - Accelerating traction during back-to-school: raising Anta's TP to HKD35 (John Chou)。

    We recently visited selected offline sportswear distributors in Eastern China. For us, back-to-school is important as it: (1) hints at autumn season demand, and (2) is traditionally a very profitable season for distributors. The acceleration in retail sales YoY that we witnessed is encouraging, after rather muted sales in July (mainly due to inventory shortage). We believe Anta was the outperformer and take this opportunity to update our model post 1H17 results. We maintain our preference for Anta over Li Ning over Pou Sheng (all Buy rated). (John Chou – 852 2203 6196)。

    http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/75-F1F8/14511753/0900b8c08d860e90.pdf

    Macau - Early Sept a blip but Oct may surprise (Karen Tang)。

    For the first 10 days of Sept, Macau GGR was only MOP6.8bn, according to consultant estimates. Even with two weekends, MTD GGR was only MOP680m/day, down from MOP731m/day in August. On this run-rate, Sept GGR would only be 11% yoy, down from 20% yoy in August. While in line with DBe (10-12% yoy), early Sept's sharp slowdown is below market expectations (15-17% yoy) as the Street underestimated the typhoon impact. (Continue on next page)。

数据推荐

投资评级

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股票名称最新评级目标价研报
上海医药 买入 -- 研报
新华保险 中性 -- 研报
新和成 持有 -- 研报
片仔癀 买入 -- 研报
上海银行 买入 12.30 研报
万里扬 买入 -- 研报
南方航空 持有 10.03 研报
联美控股 买入 12.54 研报
首旅酒店 持有 -- 研报
中青旅 持有 -- 研报
广州酒家 持有 -- 研报

盈利预测

评级选股>>
股票名称11年EPS12年EPS研报
上海医药 0.83 0.78 研报
新华保险 0.83 0.97 研报
新和成 1.80 1.59 研报
片仔癀 1.70 2.43 研报
顺网科技 0.60 0.66 研报
上海银行 0 0 研报
万里扬 0.89 0.29 研报
南方航空 0.66 0.36 研报
腾邦国际 0.79 0.59 研报
众信旅游 0 0 研报
中青旅 0.72 0.79 研报

股票关注度

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股票名称关注度平均评级最新评级
五粮液 42 持有 买入
伊利股份 39 持有 买入
完美世界 35 持有 持有
保利地产 33 买入 买入
隆基股份 32 持有 买入
贵州茅台 30 买入 买入
泸州老窖 30 持有 持有
中国国旅 29 持有 持有
三一重工 28 持有 买入
广联达 28 持有 买入
比亚迪 28 持有 持有
上汽集团 27 买入 买入
瀚蓝环境 26 持有 买入
长城汽车 26 持有 中性
海天味业 26 持有 持有
亿纬锂能 26 持有 买入
中信证券 25 持有 持有

行业关注度

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行业名称关注度关注股票数买入评级数
电子信息 513 86 252
汽车制造 411 42 225
电子器件 299 55 189
机械行业 278 57 128
生物制药 272 53 150
建筑建材 242 47 133
化工行业 235 56 109
金融行业 232 30 99
有色金属 206 41 53
酿酒行业 196 16 111
钢铁行业 190 32 89
家电行业 181 13 106
商业百货 178 36 92
酒店旅游 176 20 83
交通运输 168 32 69
房地产 162 26 104
电力行业 137 29 65