China-US trade relations III:The Section 301IP probe and the art of compromise

类别:行业研究 机构:香港上海汇丰银行有限公司 研究员:香港上海汇丰研究所 日期:2017-09-29

A powerful negotiating tool. North Korea’s latest nuclear test sparked a strongresponse from the US, including a threat to increase economic sanctions and halttrade with any country doing business with Pyongyang (Bloomberg, 3September).Taken at face value, this would include China. We believe a more nuanced version ofUS trade policy can be found in last month’s announcement of an investigation intoChina’s trade practices under Section 301of the Trade Act of 1974. The focus will beon intellectual property (IP) protection, especially allegations of unfair transfers oftechnology to Chinese firms. In the past, the US has used Section 301as a bargainingchip in trade negotiations, and we think this time will not be any different.

    Too much at stake. Our base case is that the trade negotiations taking place betweenChina and the US will continue despite the Section 301investigation. We also believethat an all-out trade war is unlikely given the huge economic interests at stake (we definea trade war as the reciprocal act of imposing punitive trade measures on all imports of atrade partner, accompanied by non-trade barriers). In our view, Washington’s goal is topersuade Beijing to open more of its domestic market to US companies and seek help inresolving problems related to North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.

    Limited effect. In this report, we look at how previous Section 301probes wereresolved and identify the products and sectors in China most exposed to any actiontaken by the US government. Although there may some temporary friction over trade,we think any economic impact on China would be limited. In future, we think bothsides will prefer to resolve trade disputes through the well-established World TradeOrganization settlement mechanism.

    The art of compromise. We expect a compromise to be reached, with negotiationscentred on increasing US access to China’s market by removing trade (e.g. tariffs)and non-trade barriers (e.g. subsidies). We also think Beijing will be open toimproving IP protection. The reason is simple – weak IP protection discouragesinnovation at a time when Beijing policymakers are making great efforts to upgradethe level of technology in the country’s industrial base. And, significantly, moredomestic Chinese companies also want great IP protection too.



海螺水泥 买入 -- 研报
再升科技 买入 -- 研报
旗滨集团 买入 -- 研报
中国巨石 买入 -- 研报
坚朗五金 买入 -- 研报
冀东水泥 买入 -- 研报
鲁亿通 买入 19.55 研报
博雅生物 持有 -- 研报
石基信息 持有 -- 研报
高能环境 持有 -- 研报
伟明环保 持有 -- 研报


旗滨集团 0.30 0.38 研报
中国巨石 0.89 0.46 研报
再升科技 0 0 研报
坚朗五金 0 0 研报
冀东水泥 1.47 0.60 研报
海螺水泥 2.36 1.21 研报
鲁亿通 0 0 研报
博雅生物 0.99 1.03 研报
石基信息 0.95 0.96 研报
中金岭南 0.50 0.38 研报
云海金属 0.20 0.22 研报


中信证券 34 持有 买入
隆基股份 32 买入 持有
华泰证券 32 持有 买入
贵州茅台 31 持有 买入
伊利股份 31 持有 买入
万科A 30 买入 买入
格力电器 30 持有 中性
五粮液 30 持有 买入
上汽集团 29 持有 买入
通威股份 28 买入 持有
三一重工 27 持有 中性
美的集团 27 持有 中性
中信证券 26 持有 买入
泸州老窖 26 持有 持有
华能国际 25 持有 中性
中国国旅 25 持有 买入
洋河股份 23 持有 买入


电子信息 598 79 307
汽车制造 538 37 310
金融行业 446 28 201
建筑建材 433 53 211
电子器件 420 55 240
化工行业 377 63 117
钢铁行业 373 29 166
机械行业 326 42 109
生物制药 313 49 145
房地产 288 31 205
家电行业 279 11 132
酿酒行业 258 15 110
煤炭行业 242 23 104
有色金属 235 49 76
服装鞋类 231 18 110
食品行业 202 23 69
酒店旅游 199 20 61