China Lodging:Lifting TP on 2Q earnings beat and fullyear upward guidance revision;top pick

类别:公司研究 机构:德意志银行 研究员:Tallan Zhou,Karen Tang 日期:2017-08-31

2Q17results beat consensus; company revised up Q3/full-year growth guidanceWe reiterate Buy on China Lodging with a new target price of USD125, up fromUSD93previously. China Lodging remains our top pick in the tourism space. Thecompany announced its 2Q17financial results today:

    Net income excluding the investment gain from 2016increased by 67.8%yoy.。

    2Q17net revenue of RMB1.99bn increased by 20.1% yoy fromRMB1.66bn in 2Q16, beating its original 2Q17guidance of a 10-12%growth range.。

    Topline growth was mainly driven by better-than-expected RevPARgrowth (to recap, the company reported 14% blended RevPAR growthand 8.3% same-hotel RevPAR growth before).。

    The company also expects the 3Q17net revenue growth to be 30% to34% (13% to 16% excluding the impact of Crystal Orange). As a result ofa stronger quarter and this momentum being likely to continue in the restof year, management has lifted its full-year net revenue growth guidanceto 12-15% from the previous 10-13%. If Crystal Orange is included, 2017Enet revenue growth guidance is 23%-26%.。

    We raise our 2017and 2018earnings growth forecast。

    As the company revised up its full-year guidance and Crystal Orange has beenconsolidated in 2Q, we raise 2017/18E EBITDA by 8%/17%, respectively; and wefactor in RMB453m EBITDA contribution by Crystal Orange in 2018E. From theoperation assumption perspective, we lift our RevPAR growth to 13% and 12% for2017and 2018, respectively while we maintain our new hotel opening at 400-500,per the company's guidance.。

    Valuation and risks。

    We use SOTP EV/EBITDA (12-month weighted average) as our primary valuation.We separately calculate the EBITDA of Crystal Orange and the original businessof China Lodging. We assign a 16x multiple to Crystal Orange as it: 1) is midhigh-scale; and 2) carries a 20% premium to its acquisition multiple of 13-14x.We assign a 14x multiple to the original China Lodging business, which is theaverage of its peers’. Risks: 1) lower tourism demand; 2) a stronger RMB, leadingto more outbound travel; and 3) government policy changes.。

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