Made in China:CN Banks,consumer debt boom;Results,BABAPing AnLodging+VIPS-Geely

类别:行业研究 机构:德意志银行 研究员:Michael Tong 日期:2017-08-25

THEME OF THE DAY

    China banks - China's consumer debt boom (Stephen Andrews)

    Over the past 2 years mortgage growth in China has surged supporting a buoyant housing market & helping partially clear the significant property oversupply issue many 2nd and 3rd tier cities faced. In the past 3-4 months another phenomenon has started to emerge which is equally interesting: Short-term consumer debt in China has started to surge. During Q2 17 household debt with a duration of less than one year accelerated & is now growing +34-35% yoy (faster than mortgage growth) and currently makes up close to 9-10% of all net new credit provision within China (a level we have not seen before). (Stephen Andrews – 852 2203 6191)

    Alibaba - Jun Q margin: "when they go low, we go high" (BABA.N, Buy, Target Price: USD 208.00, Closing Price: USD 159.50, Alan Hellawell)

    Alibaba delivered a strong quarter with revenue of RMB50.2b (+56% YoY), 2%/5% ahead of DBe/street. Core-commerce rev of RMB43b topped DBe by 4% on improving content and personalization. Tmall physical goods GMV grew 49% YoY (vs the industry at 31% per NBS). Non-GAAP EBITDA margin of 50.1% was 5.3ppts/5.7ppts higher than DBe/street. Core-commerce adj EBITA margin grew further to 63%; this amidst amids the aggressive subsidies of June promotions. BABA reiterated its full year revenue guidance of 45-49% YoY, previewing higher investment in 2H. In raising FY18 rev growth to 49% to capture strong momentum, we reiterate Buy. (Alan Hellawell – 852 2203 6240)

    Ping An - 1H17 – Strong life results, lifting forecasts and TP (Esther Chwei)

    Ping An reported 1H17 results today. Group EV came in at Rmb739,144mn (+15.9% hoh), Life EV at Rmb446,600mn (+23.9% hoh), VNB at Rmb38,551mn (underlying growth of 46.2%, vs. our 2017E forecast of 35.8%). Net profit grew 6.5% yoy to Rmb43,427mn, accounting for ~70% of DBe and 63% of BBG consensus full-year forecasts. An interim dividend of Rmb0.5/share (+150% yoy). Reiterate Buy and Top Pick. (Esther Chwei – 852 2203 6200)

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投资评级

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华泰证券 持有 -- 研报
东方证券 持有 -- 研报
中信证券 持有 -- 研报
东方财富 持有 -- 研报
兆易创新 买入 -- 研报
汇顶科技 买入 -- 研报
闻泰科技 持有 -- 研报
士兰微 持有 -- 研报
圣邦股份 买入 -- 研报
扬杰科技 持有 -- 研报
顺络电子 买入 -- 研报

盈利预测

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股票名称11年EPS12年EPS研报
浪潮信息 0.15 0.46 研报
中科曙光 0 0 研报
启明星辰 0.59 0.46 研报
苏州科达 0 0 研报
卫宁健康 0.89 0.67 研报
中新赛克 0 0 研报
创业慧康 0 0 研报
用友网络 0.66 0.68 研报
深信服 0 0 研报
石基信息 0.95 0.96 研报
新北洋 0.68 0.73 研报

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股票名称关注度平均评级最新评级
中信证券 34 持有 持有
隆基股份 32 买入 持有
华泰证券 32 持有 持有
贵州茅台 30 持有 买入
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万科A 30 买入 买入
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泸州老窖 28 持有 买入
三一重工 27 持有 买入
美的集团 27 持有 买入
中信证券 26 持有 持有
华能国际 24 持有 持有
中国国旅 24 持有 持有
当升科技 24 持有 持有

行业关注度

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行业名称关注度关注股票数买入评级数
电子信息 552 79 277
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金融行业 426 28 189
建筑建材 421 52 204
电子器件 393 55 222
钢铁行业 341 29 152
化工行业 338 61 100
生物制药 297 48 136
机械行业 290 40 105
房地产 271 31 192
家电行业 265 11 124
酿酒行业 249 15 108
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有色金属 230 48 75
服装鞋类 229 18 110
食品行业 194 23 66
酒店旅游 190 20 53