Made in China:CN Banks,consumer debt boom;Results,BABAPing AnLodging+VIPS-Geely

类别:行业研究 机构:德意志银行 研究员:Michael Tong 日期:2017-08-25

THEME OF THE DAY

    China banks - China's consumer debt boom (Stephen Andrews)

    Over the past 2 years mortgage growth in China has surged supporting a buoyant housing market & helping partially clear the significant property oversupply issue many 2nd and 3rd tier cities faced. In the past 3-4 months another phenomenon has started to emerge which is equally interesting: Short-term consumer debt in China has started to surge. During Q2 17 household debt with a duration of less than one year accelerated & is now growing +34-35% yoy (faster than mortgage growth) and currently makes up close to 9-10% of all net new credit provision within China (a level we have not seen before). (Stephen Andrews – 852 2203 6191)

    Alibaba - Jun Q margin: "when they go low, we go high" (BABA.N, Buy, Target Price: USD 208.00, Closing Price: USD 159.50, Alan Hellawell)

    Alibaba delivered a strong quarter with revenue of RMB50.2b (+56% YoY), 2%/5% ahead of DBe/street. Core-commerce rev of RMB43b topped DBe by 4% on improving content and personalization. Tmall physical goods GMV grew 49% YoY (vs the industry at 31% per NBS). Non-GAAP EBITDA margin of 50.1% was 5.3ppts/5.7ppts higher than DBe/street. Core-commerce adj EBITA margin grew further to 63%; this amidst amids the aggressive subsidies of June promotions. BABA reiterated its full year revenue guidance of 45-49% YoY, previewing higher investment in 2H. In raising FY18 rev growth to 49% to capture strong momentum, we reiterate Buy. (Alan Hellawell – 852 2203 6240)

    Ping An - 1H17 – Strong life results, lifting forecasts and TP (Esther Chwei)

    Ping An reported 1H17 results today. Group EV came in at Rmb739,144mn (+15.9% hoh), Life EV at Rmb446,600mn (+23.9% hoh), VNB at Rmb38,551mn (underlying growth of 46.2%, vs. our 2017E forecast of 35.8%). Net profit grew 6.5% yoy to Rmb43,427mn, accounting for ~70% of DBe and 63% of BBG consensus full-year forecasts. An interim dividend of Rmb0.5/share (+150% yoy). Reiterate Buy and Top Pick. (Esther Chwei – 852 2203 6200)

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投资评级

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上汽集团 中性 -- 研报
宇通客车 中性 -- 研报
银轮股份 中性 -- 研报
宁德时代 持有 -- 研报
古井贡酒 买入 134.00 研报
尚品宅配 持有 -- 研报
广汽集团 买入 17.00 研报
通化东宝 买入 25.65 研报
凯普生物 持有 27.27 研报
中环股份 持有 -- 研报
国祯环保 中性 -- 研报

盈利预测

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股票名称11年EPS12年EPS研报
银轮股份 1.01 0.29 研报
上汽集团 1.83 1.86 研报
宇通客车 1.94 1.96 研报
宁德时代 0 0 研报
古井贡酒 2.34 1.93 研报
尚品宅配 0 0 研报
广汽集团 0.81 0.37 研报
通化东宝 0.24 0.21 研报
中科创达 0 0 研报
凯普生物 0 0 研报
中环股份 0.43 0.35 研报

股票关注度

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五粮液 43 持有 买入
伊利股份 37 持有 持有
完美世界 33 持有 买入
隆基股份 32 持有 买入
保利地产 31 买入 持有
泸州老窖 29 持有 买入
上汽集团 28 买入 中性
中国国旅 28 持有 买入
广联达 28 持有 持有
新宙邦 28 持有 持有
中信证券 27 持有 买入
瀚蓝环境 27 持有 买入
五粮液 27 持有 买入
比亚迪 27 持有 持有
三一重工 26 持有 持有
通威股份 26 买入 持有
恒生电子 26 持有 买入

行业关注度

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行业名称关注度关注股票数买入评级数
电子信息 489 86 226
汽车制造 383 38 205
建筑建材 300 47 146
机械行业 288 51 124
生物制药 258 52 147
电子器件 252 52 158
化工行业 241 56 92
金融行业 228 29 96
酿酒行业 201 15 118
有色金属 191 40 44
家电行业 188 14 115
交通运输 184 33 80
酒店旅游 180 20 72
房地产 175 30 98
商业百货 154 34 81
钢铁行业 143 31 66
煤炭行业 134 31 53