China Gas Utilities:Qingdao cuts retail prices,limited impact on gas distributors

类别:行业研究 机构:德意志银行 研究员:Hanyu Zhang,Michael Tong 日期:2017-08-15

DB comments

    This echoes the notice issued by Shandong Provincial Price Bureau in earlyJuly: In response to the NDRC’s notice of Strengthening Supervision ofDistribution Tariffs issued in Jun, Shandong’s Price Bureau issued a notice in earlyJuly to cut the intra-provincial pipelines by Rmb2cents/cm and cap the distributionmargin at Rmb0.9/cm. Based on our estimates, Qingdao’s city-gate price forpiped gas is Rmb2.23/cm (provincial gate price of Rmb1.98/cm plus transmissiontariff of Rmb0.25/cm). After the end-user tariff cut, the non-residential distributionmargin cap is Rmb0.9/cm, in line with the requirement set by provincial pricebureau.

    Limited impact on gas distributors: ENN, China Gas, CR Gas all have concessionareas in Qingdao city. According to the companies, they are all selling at pricesbelow the caps as they are offering discounted prices to stimulate gas usage:ENN’s ASP is RMB3.04/cm with a Rmb0.9/cm dollar margin; CR Gas’ ASP isRmb2.9/cm with a Rmb0.6/cm dollar margin; China Gas’s ASP is Rmb3.1/cm witha Rmb0.8/cm dollar margin. In other cities within Shandong, the average dollarmargin is Rmb0.7-0.8/cm, therefore the impact should be limited.

    We expect margins to trend down gradually and mildly: We believe that over2H17-1H18, nationwide policy roll-outs may take a pause but more regionalexecution will follow (See more details in our latest sector report, published on 19July). Apart from the executions of 7% ROA cap, there are possibly some otherforms of margin/return controls including dollar margin caps or benchmarks atthe provincial/city level. Overall, we expect a mild and gradual margin squeezefor gas distributors over 2017-19E, which is driven by return regulations by localgovts and discounts offered by gas companies to stimulate gas usage. We havebuilt in RMB3-5cents/cm decrease in C&I margins over 2017-19E, which is moreconservative than mgmt guidance.

    Lower prices are positive for demand, recommend laggards: A lowertransmission/distribution margin will further support our positive outlook onvolume growth which has accelerated to 15% yoy in 1H17 at the nationwide level.



我爱我家 持有 -- 研报
久远银海 持有 33.80 研报
易世达 持有 -- 研报
璞泰来 买入 -- 研报
石大胜华 买入 -- 研报
隆基股份 买入 -- 研报
通威股份 买入 -- 研报
宁德时代 买入 -- 研报
新宙邦 买入 -- 研报
恩捷股份 买入 -- 研报
天顺风能 买入 -- 研报


凯文教育 0.60 0.57 研报
开元股份 0 1.10 研报
威创股份 0.45 0.49 研报
科斯伍德 0.67 0 研报
盛通股份 0.33 0.31 研报
美吉姆 0.73 0.40 研报
立思辰 0.46 0.49 研报
东方时尚 0 0 研报
中公教育 1.14 0.62 研报
三盛教育 0.60 0.65 研报


五粮液 42 持有 买入
伊利股份 36 持有 买入
完美世界 34 持有 持有
隆基股份 32 买入 买入
保利地产 31 买入 买入
中信证券 30 持有 中性
泸州老窖 29 持有 买入
比亚迪 29 持有 持有
上汽集团 28 买入 中性
瀚蓝环境 28 持有 持有
中国国旅 28 持有 买入
五粮液 28 买入 买入
广联达 28 持有 持有
恒生电子 27 持有 买入
新宙邦 27 持有 买入
三一重工 26 持有 买入
通威股份 26 买入 买入


电子信息 494 88 239
汽车制造 397 43 207
建筑建材 315 47 169
机械行业 314 54 130
电子器件 286 56 190
金融行业 252 29 102
生物制药 250 52 146
化工行业 246 56 94
酿酒行业 217 15 134
交通运输 191 33 89
有色金属 180 41 36
家电行业 178 14 104
房地产 175 31 107
酒店旅游 165 20 70
商业百货 149 32 79
煤炭行业 144 31 63
钢铁行业 143 31 63