Pinggao Electric Alert:1H profit drop manifests continued margin pressure;Stay cautious

类别:公司研究 机构:德意志银行 研究员:Luka Zhu,Michael Tong 日期:2017-08-14

1H results disappoint; retaining Hold.

    Pinggao’s 1H17 results came in below expectation. A 35% net profit drop despite revenue growth (+18%) manifests continued margin pressure. While the valuation multiple looks undemanding at 13x FY17E PE, we stay cautious on Pinggao since its margin is yet to bottom out and UHVAC project outlook lacks visibility. A potential UHV order contraction along with margin contraction would drag earnings CAGR down from 30% in FY15-17 to a mediocre 5% in FY17-19, on our forecasts. Hold.

    Still on a margin downward trend; difficult to achieve full-year growth .

    In 1H17, total revenue rose 18%, primarily driven by higher UHVAC GIS shipment volume (18 vs. 14 in 1H16). However, NP dropped 35% yoy, with a worse-than-expected GPM contraction by 10ppt to 21%. This is mainly squeezed by falling ASP (by c.10% for both UHV and EHV products) and rising raw materials (primarily aluminum, steel, copper, etc.). We believe the margin contraction trend is yet to reverse, considering: 1) a further raw material price spike in 1H yet to be reflected on the books, 2) continued pricing pressure amid shrinking tender size, 3) sales mix shifting to low-margin mid-low voltage products. We recognize it could be challenging to catch up in 2H and achieve a NP growth this year (consensus/DBe: +16%/12%).

    1H order update: UHV/EHV (-), distribution grid (+) .

    For UHVAC projects, there was only one equipment tender opened in 1H, namely Suzhou-Nantong 1000kV UHVAC GIL (Gas-insulated transmission line), from which Pinggao received orders of Rmb861m. This represents a 50% market share, with the rest going to Shandong Electrical Engineering & Equipment Co. In addition, West Beijing - Shijiazhuang 1000kV AC line was approved in July. However, since it is only a Rmb3.5bn size expansion project (vs. >Rmb20bn for others), order contribution to Pinggao, if any, would be insignificant. Mid-low voltage distribution grid equipment order is the silver line, with order intake up >40% yoy to >Rmb1bn, in line with industry trends.

    UHVAC project outlook lacks visibility .

    As we argued in Emerging UHV risks, shrinking upside; dg Pinggao and XJ Electric (8 June), China’s UHV transmission project approval outlook is turning less visible going forward, in light of large-scale power capacity delays and the government’s promotion of distributed energy. It is in particular uncertain for cross-region UHVAC projects, whose safety issue remains controversial. The high-margin UHVAC GIS has already contributed as much as 40%/>50% of Pinggao’s GP/NP, which is critical for its profitability. A potential high-margin UHV order contraction along with fierce competition may turn the product mix less favorable. This would likely more than offset rising distribution grid products sales as well as exports in the near term.

股票代码 股票名称 最新价(元) 涨跌额(元) 涨跌幅(%) 成交额(万元) 成交量(手)
600312 @nn@ @n@ @c@ @cc@ @v@ @t@

数据推荐

投资评级

更多>>
股票名称最新评级目标价研报
苏州银行 持有 -- 研报
华正新材 中性 -- 研报
汇顶科技 中性 -- 研报
长电科技 中性 -- 研报
精测电子 中性 -- 研报
深南电路 中性 -- 研报
北方华创 中性 -- 研报
顺络电子 中性 -- 研报
京东方A 中性 -- 研报
今世缘 买入 -- 研报
山西汾酒 买入 -- 研报

盈利预测

评级选股>>
股票名称11年EPS12年EPS研报
苏州银行 0 0 研报
长电科技 0.20 0.20 研报
京东方A -0.05 -0.03 研报
山西汾酒 1.85 1.75 研报
华正新材 0 0 研报
深南电路 0 0 研报
汇顶科技 0 0 研报
北方华创 1.31 0.94 研报
精测电子 0 0 研报
顺络电子 0.55 0.41 研报

股票关注度

更多>>
股票名称关注度平均评级最新评级
中信证券 34 持有 买入
通威股份 33 持有 持有
贵州茅台 31 持有 中性
隆基股份 31 买入 持有
华泰证券 31 持有 持有
伊利股份 30 持有 中性
中信证券 29 持有 买入
上汽集团 29 持有 买入
万科A 29 买入 买入
格力电器 29 持有 买入
五粮液 29 持有 中性
三一重工 28 持有 中性
泸州老窖 28 持有 中性
中顺洁柔 27 持有 中性
当升科技 27 持有 中性
美的集团 26 持有 买入
中国国旅 24 持有 买入

行业关注度

更多>>
行业名称关注度关注股票数买入评级数
电子信息 612 86 313
汽车制造 560 36 315
金融行业 496 28 217
建筑建材 460 52 214
电子器件 419 55 241
钢铁行业 404 28 176
化工行业 394 61 111
生物制药 364 51 181
机械行业 345 41 132
家电行业 319 12 134
房地产 301 30 214
煤炭行业 288 24 110
酿酒行业 280 16 108
电力行业 240 31 74
交通运输 231 26 119
服装鞋类 226 20 119
农林牧渔 202 23 80