China Power:Supply side reform in thermal power better than expected

类别:行业研究 机构:德意志银行 研究员:Michael Tong,Luka Zhu,Hanyu Zhang 日期:2017-08-04

1H17power sector data released by the China Electricity Council (CEC) suggestsa much slower thermal capacity expansion (halved yoy), stronger-than-expectedinvestment discipline, and a recovery in China power demand, which confirmour positive views of structural improvement in the thermal power sector despiteunchanged coal price headwind in the absence of a timely tariff hike (see ourChina power sector update note published on 9May 2017). We reiterate ourbelief that the normalization of IPP earnings will happen in 2018on an expectedtariff hike at end-2017and potentially lower coal prices. Meanwhile, the betterthan-expected supply-side reform in thermal power also bodes well for the wind/solar curtailment reduction outlook, given the contained squeezing-out effect ofthermal overcapacity.

    Lower-than-expected capacity expansion and thermal investment

    In 1H17, China added a total of 50.8GW power supply capacity, down 11% yoy.Among the capacity additions, 73.4% is non fossil-fuel, up by 20ppt yoy. Coalfiredcapacity additions halved to 11.1GW (vs. 21GW in 1H16), driven by severalsupply-side reform measures by the central government to ease the oversupply.Besides the slowdown in capacity expansions, the total investment also droppedmeaningfully. In 1H17, total power plant investment was down 13.5% yoy, ofwhich coal-fired investment dropped a significant 29% yoy.

    Stabilized utilization supported by decent demand growth

    In 1H17, China’s power demand increased by 6.3% yoy (vs. 2.7% yoy in 1H16),which is the highest growth for the same period since 2012. The CEC expectsdemand growth to be slightly higher than 4% in 2H17and reach around 5% yoyin 2017, in line with our expectation. In 1H17, thermal utilization hours recoveredslightly to 2,010hours, up 46hours yoy, the first increase after a 3-year slidesince 2013. Overall, the power supply-demand is balanced in North China, slightlyoversupplied in Central/East/South and oversupplied in Northeast and Northwest.

    Four measures suggested by CEC to underpin earnings recovery

    The CEC has suggested four measures to improve the operating environment ofthe power sector, which we believe is positive for thermal IPPs: 1) to monitorcoal prices more closely and to lower coal prices to a healthy level, 2) toimprove the coal cost pass-through mechanism, 3) to implement a compensationscheme for thermal plants that perform peak-shaving for clean energy, and 4)to issue complementary policies to reduce the losses incurred from power plantcommencement cancelation/delay.



我爱我家 持有 -- 研报
久远银海 持有 33.80 研报
易世达 持有 -- 研报
璞泰来 买入 -- 研报
石大胜华 买入 -- 研报
隆基股份 买入 -- 研报
通威股份 买入 -- 研报
宁德时代 买入 -- 研报
新宙邦 买入 -- 研报
恩捷股份 买入 -- 研报
天顺风能 买入 -- 研报


凯文教育 0.60 0.57 研报
开元股份 0 1.10 研报
威创股份 0.45 0.49 研报
科斯伍德 0.67 0 研报
盛通股份 0.33 0.31 研报
美吉姆 0.73 0.40 研报
立思辰 0.46 0.49 研报
东方时尚 0 0 研报
中公教育 1.14 0.62 研报
三盛教育 0.60 0.65 研报


五粮液 42 持有 买入
伊利股份 36 持有 买入
完美世界 34 持有 持有
隆基股份 32 买入 买入
保利地产 31 买入 买入
中信证券 30 持有 中性
泸州老窖 29 持有 买入
比亚迪 29 持有 持有
上汽集团 28 买入 中性
瀚蓝环境 28 持有 持有
中国国旅 28 持有 买入
五粮液 28 买入 买入
广联达 28 持有 持有
恒生电子 27 持有 买入
新宙邦 27 持有 买入
三一重工 26 持有 买入
通威股份 26 买入 买入


电子信息 494 88 239
汽车制造 397 43 207
建筑建材 315 47 169
机械行业 314 54 130
电子器件 286 56 190
金融行业 252 29 102
生物制药 250 52 146
化工行业 246 56 94
酿酒行业 217 15 134
交通运输 191 33 89
有色金属 180 41 36
家电行业 178 14 104
房地产 175 31 107
酒店旅游 165 20 70
商业百货 149 32 79
煤炭行业 144 31 63
钢铁行业 143 31 63