Metals &Mining:3Q17Upstream update,Cautious on bulks;Neutral on Precious
Free cash flow still appealing but remaining selective on equity exposure.
Upstream mining equities continue to make strong free cash flow with costsyet to re-inflate meaningfully and low capex (both sustaining and growth),however, we do not believe this scenario will continue medium term so weremain selective. Industrial Price Targets are mainly lower based on copper,iron ore and zinc price downgrades. Most Precious PTs have also been loweredbased on our continued neutral view on gold and silver and some adjustmentsto operational forecasts. In Precious, we have Buys on Newmont, Barrick,Wheaton Precious Metals and Pan American on valuation. Additionally, inIndustrials, we retain Buys on Vale, First Quantum and Teck.
Becoming more cautious Industrial commodities, neutral on gold.
Our iron ore forecasts are down 9% in 2017 ($63/t) but up 3% in 2018/19($55/t/$57/t), versus spot of $56/t. We have also cut our 2017/18 copperforecasts by 3%/1% to $2.58/lb/$2.57/lb and zinc by 14%/2% to$1.21/lb/$1.13/lb. In Coking coal, our forecasts are 3% lower to $187/t in 2017but our 2018 forecast of $115/t remains unchanged (90% price realizationassumed for Teck). In gold, our forecasts are up 4% in 2017 to $1,250/oz butstill below spot at $1,282/oz. Our gold forecast in 2018 is down 1% to$1,240/oz with macro headwinds balanced against potential politicalrisk/global uncertainty. In general, we also continue to like metals exposed tothe Electric Vehicle thematic, however, for lithium specifically, we see 2017 asa key year of supply additions (Mt Marion, Mt Cattlin, Wodgina) so we believethere is risk that pricing momentum slows by 4Q17/1Q18.
Balance Sheets in good shape providing improving options for companies.
On average, Net Debt/EBITDA for Industrial miners is forecast to fall to 1.4x byYE17, a substantial decrease vs 2.8x at YE16 (influenced by Vale). Free cashflow generation should continue, but we are cautious some companies mayneed to eventually increase capex (sustaining and growth) and commodityprices may correct by 2018 depending on Chinese demand. Dividends have thepotential to improve but debt pay down to achieve improved credit ratings is alarger priority for most companies.
Selective equity exposure based on cashflow generation.
Overall, we have 7 Buys and 8 Holds for Upstream miners. Top Industrialequities picks include: First Quantum (copper production growth), Teck (28%2017E FCF yield, improving Balance Sheet), and Vale (free cash flow, BalanceSheet improvement). Top Precious equities picks include: Newmont (cash flow,balance sheet), Barrick (further cost-out), Wheaton Precious Metals (valuation,free cash potential) and Pan American Silver (Mexican Peso exposure, growthprojects near-completion and a strong Balance Sheet).
Valuation and risks (details, p. 42-45).
On average, our PTs are based on ~1.0x NPV. Risks include commodity pricemovements, FX and operational uncertainty. This report changes Price Targets,and earnings estimates (see Figure 4).