Coal Market Update:China trip takeaways,negative for thermal near term

类别:行业研究 机构:德意志银行 研究员:德意志银行研究所 日期:2017-05-19

A negative outlook already priced in

    We recently toured China, meeting with coal companies such as Shenhua andChina Coal, power companies and coal traders. Industry participants seeslowing demand for thermal coal in the coming months and increased supplywith mines operating at 330days, leading to thermal coal prices declining fromthe current RMB590/t (vs. Newcastle at US$73/t) to the bottom end of thegovernment’s targeted price band of RMB530-570/t (US$65-70/t NEWC Eq).Inventory at IPPs (19days) and port stocks (19-20Mt) are at normal levels. Coalstocks already seem to be pricing in the likely drop in thermal coal. Our topsector picks are Shenhua and China Coal.

    Entering the weak season for coal demand

    Chinese power demand increased 6% in 1Q17with thermal coal demandincreasing by 4% (c. 100Mt increase). However coal and power companies areseeing weaker demand in May due to strong hydro power. Over the mediumterm coal demand is expected to slow (net additions of 20Gw per annum) dueto competition from wind (35Gw p.a.) and natural gas (10Gw p.a.) with coalfalling from 60% to 55% of the total energy mix by 2020. Market participantssee the top 5power producers as currently break-even (gross margin 2c/kwhr),Mergers between coal producers and IPPs is a possibility, as well as thegovernment raising power tariffs slightly.

    Thermal price seen dropping into RMB530-570/t green band on strong supply

    With most thermal mines operating at 330days or higher, industry participantsexpect the thermal coal price will fall from current spot of RMB590/t into thegovernment “green band” of RMB530-570/t and perhaps even as low asRMB470/t (US$60/t NEWC Eq). Inspection times seem to have been shortenedbut trucking restrictions at Northern ports remain in place. Over the mediumterm, new mines are still required to meet demand and most SOEs productiontargets for 2017are unchanged due to underinvestment. There is still 300-500Mt of unlicensed capacity and c. 1Bt of new capacity under constructionacross the coal industry. The government is closing lower-efficiency highercostmines with lower-cost larger mines. The ‘no new mine for 3years’ policywas relaxed in 4Q16, although the NDRC is still encouraging a “new for oldpolicy”. Coal companies expect industry production growth of 2% p.a or300Mt over the next 5years. This is slightly ahead of our domestic demandforecast, and we expect Chinese net thermal coal imports to continue easinglower. For coking coal, domestic production should be flat in 2017.

    Global coal stock valuations and sensitivities

    The global miners with exposure to coal are; pure plays Shenhua (BUY,thermal 41% of FY18E EBITDA, discounting flat RMB480/t), China Coal (BUY,52% of FY18E EBITDA, discounting flat RMB470/t), and WHC (HOLD, thermal66%/semi-soft 34% of FY18E EBITDA, discounting US$60/t flat), anddiversified miners; GLEN (HOLD, 22% of CY17E EBITDA), S32(HOLD, 7% ofFY18E EBITDA), AAL (HOLD, 11% of CY17E EBITDA), BHP (HOLD, 6% ofFY18E EBITDA).



上海医药 持有 29.85 研报
长安汽车 中性 13.50 研报
康盛股份 持有 -- 研报
云铝股份 中性 -- 研报
上海医药 持有 31.00 研报
久立特材 中性 8.99 研报
美年健康 买入 -- 研报
金达威 持有 23.40 研报
通化东宝 持有 -- 研报
启迪桑德 持有 -- 研报
宇通客车 买入 -- 研报


分众传媒 0 0 研报
捷成股份 1.05 0.83 研报
苏宁云商 0.70 0.60 研报
潮宏基 0.81 0.97 研报
武汉中商 0.36 0.32 研报
飞亚达A 0.42 0.42 研报
新华都 0.65 0.37 研报
金一文化 0 0 研报
合肥百货 0.89 0.71 研报
鄂武商A 0.72 0.76 研报
海印股份 0.84 1.00 研报


清新环境 37 持有 持有
恒瑞医药 30 持有 持有
聚光科技 30 持有 持有
中兴通讯 29 持有 持有
伊利股份 28 持有 持有
中国国旅 28 持有 持有
洋河股份 28 持有 持有
清新环境 27 持有 持有
万科A 27 持有 买入
汇川技术 27 持有 持有
先导智能 27 持有 买入
宇通客车 26 持有 买入
烽火通信 26 持有 持有
博世科 26 持有 持有
保利地产 25 持有 买入
安琪酵母 25 持有 持有
贵州茅台 25 持有 持有


电子信息 1079 121 258
生物制药 754 75 279
机械行业 642 97 181
汽车制造 570 52 134
食品行业 568 36 186
化工行业 567 73 189
酿酒行业 501 20 107
建筑建材 485 55 224
金融行业 481 31 185
农林牧渔 471 38 206
交通运输 437 48 151
电子器件 422 74 102
房地产 394 54 126
煤炭行业 378 36 97
环保行业 375 22 69
酒店旅游 358 26 154
家电行业 328 20 89