Coal Market Update:China trip takeaways,negative for thermal near term

类别:行业研究 机构:德意志银行 研究员:德意志银行研究所 日期:2017-05-19

A negative outlook already priced in

    We recently toured China, meeting with coal companies such as Shenhua andChina Coal, power companies and coal traders. Industry participants seeslowing demand for thermal coal in the coming months and increased supplywith mines operating at 330days, leading to thermal coal prices declining fromthe current RMB590/t (vs. Newcastle at US$73/t) to the bottom end of thegovernment’s targeted price band of RMB530-570/t (US$65-70/t NEWC Eq).Inventory at IPPs (19days) and port stocks (19-20Mt) are at normal levels. Coalstocks already seem to be pricing in the likely drop in thermal coal. Our topsector picks are Shenhua and China Coal.

    Entering the weak season for coal demand

    Chinese power demand increased 6% in 1Q17with thermal coal demandincreasing by 4% (c. 100Mt increase). However coal and power companies areseeing weaker demand in May due to strong hydro power. Over the mediumterm coal demand is expected to slow (net additions of 20Gw per annum) dueto competition from wind (35Gw p.a.) and natural gas (10Gw p.a.) with coalfalling from 60% to 55% of the total energy mix by 2020. Market participantssee the top 5power producers as currently break-even (gross margin 2c/kwhr),Mergers between coal producers and IPPs is a possibility, as well as thegovernment raising power tariffs slightly.

    Thermal price seen dropping into RMB530-570/t green band on strong supply

    With most thermal mines operating at 330days or higher, industry participantsexpect the thermal coal price will fall from current spot of RMB590/t into thegovernment “green band” of RMB530-570/t and perhaps even as low asRMB470/t (US$60/t NEWC Eq). Inspection times seem to have been shortenedbut trucking restrictions at Northern ports remain in place. Over the mediumterm, new mines are still required to meet demand and most SOEs productiontargets for 2017are unchanged due to underinvestment. There is still 300-500Mt of unlicensed capacity and c. 1Bt of new capacity under constructionacross the coal industry. The government is closing lower-efficiency highercostmines with lower-cost larger mines. The ‘no new mine for 3years’ policywas relaxed in 4Q16, although the NDRC is still encouraging a “new for oldpolicy”. Coal companies expect industry production growth of 2% p.a or300Mt over the next 5years. This is slightly ahead of our domestic demandforecast, and we expect Chinese net thermal coal imports to continue easinglower. For coking coal, domestic production should be flat in 2017.

    Global coal stock valuations and sensitivities

    The global miners with exposure to coal are; pure plays Shenhua (BUY,thermal 41% of FY18E EBITDA, discounting flat RMB480/t), China Coal (BUY,52% of FY18E EBITDA, discounting flat RMB470/t), and WHC (HOLD, thermal66%/semi-soft 34% of FY18E EBITDA, discounting US$60/t flat), anddiversified miners; GLEN (HOLD, 22% of CY17E EBITDA), S32(HOLD, 7% ofFY18E EBITDA), AAL (HOLD, 11% of CY17E EBITDA), BHP (HOLD, 6% ofFY18E EBITDA).



康泰生物 持有 -- 研报
智飞生物 持有 -- 研报
安科生物 持有 -- 研报
美年健康 持有 -- 研报
片仔癀 持有 -- 研报
龙马环卫 持有 -- 研报
杰克股份 买入 -- 研报
康尼机电 买入 -- 研报
华测检测 买入 -- 研报
洛阳钼业 持有 9.88 研报
盛和资源 持有 23.04 研报


分众传媒 0 0 研报
捷成股份 1.05 0.80 研报
合肥百货 0.90 0.68 研报
苏宁云商 0.70 0.56 研报
潮宏基 0.81 0.93 研报
武汉中商 0.36 0.30 研报
飞亚达A 0.42 0.40 研报
新华都 0.65 0.35 研报
金一文化 0 0 研报
银座股份 0.56 0.50 研报
鄂武商A 0.72 0.75 研报


贵州茅台 33 持有 持有
清新环境 33 持有 持有
桐昆股份 32 持有 买入
中国国旅 30 持有 买入
五粮液 28 持有 持有
先导智能 28 持有 持有
伊利股份 26 持有 持有
东江环保 26 持有 持有
聚光科技 26 持有 持有
生物股份 25 持有 持有
海大集团 25 持有 持有
三一重工 24 持有 持有
保利地产 24 持有 持有
通威股份 24 持有 中性
中青旅 23 持有 持有
锦江股份 23 持有 买入
华东医药 23 持有 中性


电子信息 710 108 178
机械行业 452 77 145
生物制药 420 59 141
化工行业 369 71 124
酿酒行业 344 18 55
酒店旅游 343 25 136
房地产 323 44 124
农林牧渔 311 35 146
食品行业 311 28 64
建筑建材 304 51 151
金融行业 299 28 120
交通运输 298 39 92
汽车制造 283 43 64
环保行业 248 21 44
钢铁行业 220 35 71
电子器件 215 54 51
服装鞋类 198 25 57