China Healthcare:Monthly hospital Rx tracker,March 2017

Growth moderation in 1Q17

    Hospital Rx data suggest that the growth of total hospital drugs salesdecelerated to 1.4% YoY in 1Q17, compared with 11.5% YoY growth in 1Q16and 7.3% for 2016. Nearly half of the flagship drugs declined in this season.Hengrui's Kai Te Li, CBPO's albumin, SBP's Runzhong, 3SBio's EPIAO andTPIAO, and CSPC's NBP recorded growth of 23%/26%/12%/-5%/2%/17% in1Q17, vs. 25%/14%/26%/5%/33%/33% in 2016. We also provide three-monthrolling averages of key drugs in this report. We remind investors to interprethospital drug data cautiously, as they may deviate from actual reported data.

    Hengrui: Kai Te Li continues strong growth in 1Q17

    Flagship products Ai Li, Ai Su, Ai Heng, the atracurium series and Kai Te Ligrew 12%/-3%/-2%/5%/23% in 1Q17vs. 13%/4%/0%/5%/25% in 2016. On a 3-month rolling basis, average growth for Ai Li and Ai Su was 12%/-3% in 1Q17vs. 15%/6% in 12M16.

    SBP: Runzhong slows down, Kaifen growth momentum intact

    Four major products – Runzhong, Ganmei, Kaishi and Kaifen – registeredgrowth of 12%/-1%/-8%/25% in 1Q17, vs. 26%/1%/-1%/31% in 2016. On a 3-month rolling basis, average growth of Runzhong and Ganmei was 12%/-1% in1Q17vs. 34%/5% in 12M16.

    3SBio: EPIAO and TPIAO decelerate, SEPO solid

    Growth for EPIAO and TPIAO came in at -5%/2% in 1Q17, compared with5%/33% during 2016. Yisaipu is yet to enjoy the benefits from its new NRDLinclusion, growing at -6% in 1Q17, vs. 2% in 2016. SEPO delivered growth of37% YoY in 1Q17.

    CSPC: oncology franchise continues robust growth

    Flagship products NBP, Xuanning and Oulaining grew 17%/-1%/-13% in 1Q17,vs. 33%/6%/4% in 2016. Oncology drugs Duomeisu and Jinyouli continuedrobust growth at 44%/91% in 1Q17, compared with 120%/180% during 2016.On a 3-month rolling basis, average growth of NBP and Oulaining was 17%/-13% in 1Q17vs. 36%/8% in 12M16.

    CBPO: albumin accelerates while IVIG registers negative growth

    Albumin/IVIG delivered growth of 26%/-6% in 1Q17vs. 14%/3% in 2016. On a3-month rolling basis, average growth for albumin/IVIG was 26%/-6% in 1Q17vs. 13%/7% in 12M16.