QSLI 1Q17results:sluggish potash sales;lowering target price to RMB17.5

类别:公司研究 机构:德意志银行 研究员:Vitus Leung,Johnson Wan 日期:2017-05-05

Poor potash volume drags down QSLI’s 1Q17 numbers.

    Potash losing market share; volume QSLI recorded a net loss of RMB265mn in 1Q17, compared with net profit of RMB81mn in 4Q16 and RMB144mn in 1Q16. The loss was driven by: 1) sluggish potash sales (volume fell by 270kton YoY), leading to lower market share due to a transportation cost hike, 2) a higher DD&A charge on the magnesium integration and Haina PVC projects due to construction-in-progress transferred to fixed assets; and 3) lack of a one-off gain - stripping out the one-off gain from the Shanghai Fuyou Property disposal, 1Q16 would have seen a net loss of RMB127mn. We expect QSLI to achieve economies of scale after its potash capacity ramp-up; hence, we maintain our Hold rating.

    Potash losing market share; volume falls by 270kt in 1Q17.

    QSLI recorded a potash sales volume drop in 1Q17 despite expanding capacity in 2H16 to 5mntpa, indicating a market share loss after the transportation law passed in 3Q16 led to higher transportation costs. QSLI’s potash sales volume dropped by 29% (270kton) to 670kton, from c.940kton in 1Q16. On the other hand, Chinese potash consumption increased by 5.5% YoY in 1Q17.

    Improved chemical segment performance.

    QSLI continued to reduce the cost of the chemicals segment. During the quarter: 1) chemical integration project phases one and two reported in-line additional cost-cutting of RMB1.11bn, -28% YoY compared with RMB1.54bn in 1Q16, 2) profitability improved for lithium carbonate due to an enhanced production capacity, and 3) the PVC project suffered a heavy loss due to the construction transfer to fixed assets, which could offset the gains.

    Earnings, valuation and risks; maintaining Hold.

    We cut our FY17E/18E EPS to RMB0.24/0.46 by 46%/34% after lowering the utilization rate for potash production in FY17E/18E to 75%/80%; however, we maintain our Hold rating with a DCF-based target price of RMB17.5 (assuming 7.2% WACC and 2% terminal growth), which implies 1.19/1.16 FY17E/18E P/B. We believe most of the negative effects have been factored in, and the potash utilization should start to improve as demand picks up. Key downside risks: 1) sluggish chemical prices and soft demand could lead to lower product sales; and 2) unfavorable government policy. Key upside risks: 1) better-than-expected potash prices; and 2) faster-than-expected demand growth.

股票代码 股票名称 最新价(元) 涨跌额(元) 涨跌幅(%) 成交额(万元) 成交量(手)
000792 @nn@ @n@ @c@ @cc@ @v@ @t@

数据推荐

投资评级

更多>>
股票名称最新评级目标价研报
首旅酒店 买入 -- 研报
众信旅游 买入 -- 研报
宋城演艺 买入 -- 研报
桃李面包 买入 66.00 研报
中国平安 中性 -- 研报
佳发教育 买入 60.00 研报
石英股份 买入 21.00 研报
中航沈飞 中性 -- 研报
长江电力 持有 -- 研报
华电国际 持有 -- 研报
华能国际 持有 -- 研报

盈利预测

评级选股>>
股票名称11年EPS12年EPS研报
桃李面包 0 0 研报
中国平安 2.56 2.61 研报
佳发教育 0 0 研报
石英股份 0 0 研报
中航沈飞 0.54 0 研报
中材科技 0.68 0.30 研报
天顺风能 0.66 0.90 研报
长江电力 0.48 0.53 研报
中国核电 0 0 研报
华能国际 0.18 0.37 研报
中油工程 0.65 -0.00 研报

股票关注度

更多>>
股票名称关注度平均评级最新评级
中国国旅 35 持有 中性
中信证券 32 持有 买入
用友网络 32 持有 持有
伊利股份 32 持有 持有
三一重工 26 持有 买入
上汽集团 26 持有 买入
中国平安 26 持有 中性
中航机电 26 持有 买入
当升科技 26 持有 持有
通威股份 25 持有 持有
伊利股份 25 持有 持有
宋城演艺 25 持有 买入
用友网络 24 持有 持有
隆基股份 24 买入 买入
贵州茅台 23 持有 买入
双汇发展 23 持有 买入
天虹股份 23 买入 中性

行业关注度

更多>>
行业名称关注度关注股票数买入评级数
电子信息 660 98 371
汽车制造 405 42 232
化工行业 386 55 148
生物制药 343 54 206
金融行业 322 27 141
电子器件 299 52 162
建筑建材 282 47 155
房地产 259 35 156
机械行业 256 51 129
酿酒行业 201 17 85
食品行业 197 27 82
农林牧渔 188 26 65
服装鞋类 184 20 93
酒店旅游 177 20 69
交通运输 177 29 86
电力行业 172 30 63
商业百货 170 28 91