Q1(March Quarter)2017Earnings Preview

类别:行业研究 机构:德意志银行 研究员:David Begleiter 日期:2017-04-20

Expect strong Q1 results on healthy global demand. Top Pick: DD/DOWWe expect US chemicals to report strong March quarter results as healthydemand in the US and Europe, improving trends in China and Latin America,selling price increases and restructuring savings more than offset higherfeedstock costs. On Q2 and ’17 guidance, we expect US chemical companiesto be cautiously optimistic as expectations of improving global demand andprice increases more than offset higher raw material costs and macro andgeopolitical uncertainties. Our top picks are Dow and DuPont (with mergerclose expected by August 31) and Ashland.

    Global GDP growth is expected to accelerate from 3.1% in ’16 to 3.5% in ‘17DB’s economics team forecasts US GDP growth accelerated to 2.0% in Q1 from1.9% in Q4’16. For Q2’17, US GDP is forecasted to grow 2.5% as solidhousing/construction activity (housing starts up 12% YoY in ‘17E) is partially offsetby sluggish industrial and manufacturing activity. In Europe, while growthaccelerated to 1.6% in Q4’16, DB’s economics team forecasts GDP growth of 1.1%in Q1 and Q2. DB’s economics team forecasts China’s GDP grew 6.8% in Q1 vs6.5% in Q4’16. For ’17 DB’s economics team forecasts US GDP growth of 2.6% (vs1.6% in ’16), Europe GDP growth of 1.3% (vs 1.7% in ’16), China GDP growth of6.5% (vs 6.7% in ’16) and global GDP growth of 3.5% (vs 3.1% in ’16).

    Ethylene chain margins expand in Q1US contract ethylene margins rose 1 c/lb in Q1 to 19.5 c/lb on higher contractprices and lower ethane and propane feedstock costs (down 1.5 c/lb QoQ in Q1 to11.8 c/lb, up 2 c/lb YoY). Meanwhile, polyethylene prices rose $0.08/lb in Q1 due toa combination of steady demand, low inventories, outages and higherethyleneprices. Starting Q2‘17, we expect US ethylene chain margins to weakendue to a limited number of ethylene outages (from April through August, just 2.7%of US ethylene capacity is scheduled to be offline vs. 7.3% a year ago) and newpolyethylene capacity.

    Differentiated / specialty chemical companies forecasted to post 7% EPS growthIn Q1, we expect Specialty and Differentiated Chemical companies to post 7% YoYEPS growth driven by solid demand, flat-to-slightly higher feedstock costs, costreductions and share buybacks. We expect ethylene producers to post YoY lowergrowth due to lower oil prices partially offset by buybacks and growth projects.

    Top Picks: Dow/DuPont and Ashland GlobalDow/DuPont: We expect both Dow and DuPont to post solid Q1 results driven bystrong ethylene chain fundamentals at Dow Corning synergies at Dow andaggressive cost reductions and solid demand at DuPont. DuPont’s transactionwith FMC has brought it one step closer to its historic $145B merger with Dow.

    In order to accommodate approval for the FMC transaction, DuPont nowexpects the Dow / DuPont merger to close between August 1 and August 31.

    With merger close in sight, albeit delayed by another 2 months, reiterate Buy.

    Ashland: We expect FQ2 results to be positive on improving volumes in ASI (6%volume growth in FQ1 following 6 quarters of flat to down volumes) coupled with arenewed focus on pricing. In Ashland’s FQ1 release, management reiterated its planto distribute the remaining 83% of Valvoline (VVV, Hold, $23.48). Eastman: Weexpect in-line Q1 results and a reiteration of full year guidance on solid demand,costs savings and benefits from the rolling of propane hedges.



中国中车 持有 14.50 研报
冠福股份 中性 -- 研报
长川科技 持有 86.00 研报
智云股份 持有 43.50 研报
中青旅 持有 26.60 研报
龙马环卫 持有 -- 研报
高能环境 持有 -- 研报
重庆水务 减持 -- 研报
远达环保 持有 -- 研报
中再资环 买入 -- 研报
武汉控股 买入 -- 研报


分众传媒 0 0 研报
捷成股份 1.09 0.82 研报
金一文化 0 0 研报
合肥百货 0.89 0.70 研报
苏宁云商 0.70 0.59 研报
潮宏基 0.80 0.97 研报
武汉中商 0.36 0.32 研报
飞亚达A 0.42 0.42 研报
新华都 0.66 0.37 研报
王府井 1.40 1.54 研报
银座股份 0.56 0.50 研报


清新环境 37 持有 持有
聚光科技 31 持有 持有
清新环境 30 持有 持有
恒瑞医药 30 持有 买入
中兴通讯 29 持有 买入
先导智能 29 持有 买入
中国国旅 28 持有 买入
万科A 28 持有 持有
伊利股份 27 持有 买入
启迪桑德 27 持有 买入
汇川技术 27 持有 持有
贵州茅台 26 持有 买入
洋河股份 26 持有 买入
宇通客车 25 持有 持有
中炬高新 25 持有 买入
海天味业 25 买入 持有
泸州老窖 25 持有 买入


电子信息 1142 124 301
生物制药 769 74 328
机械行业 749 101 255
食品行业 634 36 212
酿酒行业 577 20 131
化工行业 577 70 190
汽车制造 551 50 127
建筑建材 548 57 300
金融行业 522 31 209
交通运输 495 49 178
农林牧渔 470 38 226
煤炭行业 430 36 118
电子器件 429 72 116
环保行业 415 24 81
房地产 415 52 144
服装鞋类 367 34 112
酒店旅游 366 27 167