China PV glass sector:Market leaders to better navigate industry headwinds

类别:行业研究 机构:中信建投(国际)金融控股有限公司 研究员:中信建投(国际)研究所 日期:2016-10-21

Policy overhangs overshadow industry outlook.Thepotential harsher-than-expected 2017 tariff cutsas suggested in the NDRC draft would trigger another round of front-loaded installations (over 18GW in our estimates) in China by Jun-17. Should the aggressive tariff cut materialise, global installations beyondmid-2017might enter another down cyclein the worst casescenario, as other emerging markets are unlikely to offset a significant decline in China, in our view.

    Oversupply alleviated on capacity overhauls and furnace upgrade.In spite of the fact that several leading players have recently announced capacity expansion plans of large-scale furnaces(800-1000ton daily melting capacity)in 2016-18, we see industry overcapacity to be largely relieved, in view of the expected overhauls of over a quarter of existing capacities in 2017,and the exit ofinefficient furnaces of 250ton daily melting capacity(c.40% of existing total capacity) in the medium term.

    Market leaders likely to be better off amid industry downtrends.PV glass ASPs are likely to continue -on a downward trend in the short term, given the low utilization and high inventory levels of downstream module suppliers, as well as possible overhaul overcasting visibility in demand by Jun-17. Nonetheless, we believe leading players would be able to weather the market downturns and continue their track records in achieving outstanding profitability among glass makers and solar components suppliers.

    Initiate coverage on Xinyi Solar (968 HK) with a BUY rating.We like Xinyi Solar for its resilient growth prospects and capabilities to navigate industry headwinds. Xinyi is well poised to strengthen its leading position with capacity expansion and solar power developments. Xinyi trades at forward PER and PBR of 8.0x and 1.9x respectively (over 1SD below its historical average), which looks attractive. Our DCF-based PTofHKD3.61 implies 25%potential upside.

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