Shandong Hi-speed Company:Board passed an Rmb4bn private placement plan;2016-18E shareholder return planning determined

类别:公司研究 机构:瑞银证券有限责任公司 研究员:Robin Xu 日期:2016-09-23

Rmb4bn private placement to Anbang Asset and Huarong Trust

    The Board passed its private placement plan, planning to issue up to 708m shares toAnbang Asset and Huarong Trust to raise up to Rmb4bn at Rmb5.65/sh (15% below itsclosing price of Rmb6.68/sh before trading suspension), with a lock-up period of 36months. Of the Rmb4bn to be financed, Anbang will subscribe Rmb3.6bn with its AMproducts, while Huarong will subscribe Rmb0.4bn with its own fund. The funds raisedwill all be used for Jiqing's expansion from 4 to 8 lanes. The planning is also subject tothe approval of shareholders' meeting, notice of which will be issued according toShangdong SASAC's approval process. Its shares will resume trading on 23 Sep.

    EPS will be diluted by 8%; gearing ratio will drop notably

    The to-be-issued 708m shares will account for 13% of total equity of 5.519bn sharesafter the placement. As the savings in financial expenses will increase its net profit (ex.one-offs) by 5%, we calculate the placement will dilute EPS by 8%. The Rmb4bn to beraised will also significantly reduce the company's gearing ratio, with 2017/18E debt-toequityratio to drop to 46%/72% from 67%/95%, based on our estimate. Meanwhile,the company also determined its 2016-18E shareholder return plan, with each year'scash dividend no less than 30% of that year's distributable profit and accumulated cashdividend no less than 90% of the three years' annual average distributable profit.

    Positive on investment return of the Jiqing expansion project

    Though the market may be concerned that the Jiqing expansion project could drag onearnings during its construction period (2016-19E) and the early operation period(2020-25E), we are still optimistic on its long-term return. Assuming the project'scapital fund investment is Rmb7.5bn, and there will be 25 years' concession rightperiod (to June 2044) after its completion, we estimate the project's capital fund returnat 10% (the project's total investment at Rmb30bn). Meanwhile, potential saving inconstruction expenses, lower-than-expected interest expense, better-than-expectedtraffic flow/toll rate and potential cheap financing from China Development Bank topartly replace the Rmb7.5bn capital fund could all contribute to better investmentreturn. For more information on this project, please refer to our initiation report: Weare positive on cash return from Jiqing expansion; tariffs may have upside.

    Valuation: Buy rating, 12-month price target of Rmb7.05

    We derive our price target of Rmb7.05 with the DCF methodology (WACC 6.8%),assuming a terminal value of 0 after the termination of concession right in 2044.

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