GD Power Alert:Positive 1H16NP growth on nonthermal &location exposure

类别:公司研究 机构:德意志银行 研究员:Michael Tong 日期:2016-08-31

GD Power reported 1H16 results with net profit of Rmb3.66bn (+7% yoy),mainly driven by higher power output (+11%) and reduced unit fuel cost (-16%), partially offset by lower on-grid tariff (-9%). Annualized ROE edged up by0.6ppt to 13.6%. Among listed IPPs, GD Power is one of the few that recordeda positive 1H earnings growth thanks to for two reasons: 1) high non-thermalexposure (32% hydro/wind), 2) high capacity exposure to eastern China (52%capacity in Jiangsu/Zhejiang/Anhui) where dark spread and plant utilization aremore favorable. The stock is trading at undemanding valuation of 9x 2016 P/E.Maintain Buy.

    1H16 net profit up 7% yoy to Rmb3.66bn

    GD reported 1H16 results after market close on 29 Aug 2016 with reported netprofit up 7% to Rmb3,656mn, slightly better than our expectation andaccounts for 52% of our full year forecast. Earnings growth was primarilydriven by a 11% yoy increase in power generation (thermal +5%; hydro +47%)and a 16% drop in standard coal price, partially offset by 9% lower powertariff. By plant, its hydro unit – Daduhe contributed Rmb656mn profit (1H15:Rmb282mn) and its core thermal unit – Guodian Jiangsu contributedRmb849mn profit (1H15: Rmb705mn).

    Direct power supply

    In 1H16, 20% of power output was sold at market-based prices with anaverage discount of Rmb6.2cents/kwh according to the mgmt. Most DPScomes from thermal power plants and the rest is from hydro plants in Daduhe.By province, tariff discount are high in Yunnan, Liaoning and Inner Mongolia(6-10 cents) while being low in Jiangsu, Zhejiang (2-3 cents).

    Capacity expansion plan

    By end-1H16, GD Power’s total installed capacity reached 49GW of which33GW is thermal and 11GW is hydro. In 1H16, the company has disposedsome small and inefficient thermal units. Mgmt expects no new capacity to beadded in 2H16. However in 2017 there are 4.3GW (eight generation units)thermal power capacity scheduled to commence operation. GD Power plans toadd 900MW wind farm in 2016-17. During 13th FYP period (2016-2020), mgmtexpects wind capacity to expand by 800MW/year on average.

    Utilization hours; fuel cost

    In 1H16, Thermal utilization dropped 6% yoy to 2,117 hours and mgmt targetsan above 4,000 utilization hours in 2016 (4,499 in 2015). Hydro utilizationimproved by 9% to 1,383 hours and according to the mgmt, the robust hydrooutput growth continued in July and August. In 1H16, GD Power’s standardcoal cost was Rmb357/ton, down 16% yoy. The mgmt expects the coal pricemay increase by c.Rmb50/t hoh n 2H16.

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