BBMG Corp:H/A,Maintain Buy/Upgrade to Hold,Firing on all cylinders

类别:公司研究 机构:香港上海汇丰银行有限公司 研究员:香港上海汇丰研究所 日期:2016-07-27

Stay positive: BBMG-H’s share price has been strong over the past month (+29% vsHSCEI’s +6% over the same period) but we remain positive and see further upside afterthe 1H16 positive profit warning and our recent NDR lunch with senior management.

    Specifically, we lift our already above-consensus earnings further, tweak up our TPs (H by18% to HKD4.30 and A by 19% to CNY3.80) on higher earnings and target multiples. Wemaintain our Buy on BBMG-H shares and upgrade BBMG A shares to Hold.

    Cement profitability stronger than earlier expected: BBMG’s cement businessturned profitable in May 2016, while Jidon (the cement company with which BBMGintends to merge subject to approvals, see our 13 July note), has also seen animprovement in earnings. Management expects momentum to continue especiallygiven the recovery in prices seen in June. Specifically, June cement GP/t reachedRMB40 which compares to 1H15a RMB21 GP/t. This price recovery reflects bothdemand and supply improvements. Management guided that if prices remain atcurrent levels for the rest of 2016, annualised GP/t should be c.RMB30-35, asubstantial increase over the RMB18 GP/t achieved in FY15A.

    Consolidation seen as strategically positive: Investors’ feedback to the proposedconsolidation has been generally positive especially as, assuming successful completion;the combined BBMG/Jidong entity will control 59% clinker capacity and 79% clinkerproduction in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. The company has suggested scope for furthercooperation, acquisitions or capacity swaps with other major competitors in the regionwhich could further improve demand/supply dynamics.

    Earnings/TP lifted, maintain Buy on BBMG-H as sector top pick: Given the above,we lift our forecasts. We increase our headline 2016e/17e earnings by 24%/17%. Weexpect BBMG’s 2016e headline NPAT to increase 45% in (or c.100% on an underlyingbasis) but note BBMG announced a 1H16 alert for 60-80% YoY profit increase onproperty development strength as well as the recent cement price gains. Our revisedFY16e/17e EPS are now 11%/33% above consensus. Our new BBMG-H TP implies 46%upside from last close. BBMG-H remains our top sector pick. We upgrade BBMG-A toHold on valuation. Key risks to our view are non-execution of the proposed Jidong mergeras well as price trends.

股票代码 股票名称 最新价(元) 涨跌额(元) 涨跌幅(%) 成交额(万元) 成交量(手)
601992 @nn@ @n@ @c@ @cc@ @v@ @t@

数据推荐

投资评级

更多>>
股票名称最新评级目标价研报
广州酒家 买入 -- 研报
创业黑马 买入 -- 研报
科锐国际 买入 -- 研报
文化长城 买入 -- 研报
众信旅游 买入 -- 研报
三特索道 买入 -- 研报
黄山旅游 买入 -- 研报
峨眉山A 买入 -- 研报
凯撒旅游 买入 -- 研报
光威复材 买入 -- 研报
中国国旅 买入 69.36 研报

盈利预测

评级选股>>
股票名称11年EPS12年EPS研报
三一重工 1.26 1.10 研报
先导智能 0 0 研报
徐工机械 1.92 1.44 研报
杰瑞股份 2.08 1.43 研报
诺力股份 0 0 研报
锐科激光 0 0 研报
中微公司 0 0 研报
捷佳伟创 0 0 研报
恒立液压 0.93 0.67 研报
北方华创 1.31 0.94 研报
涪陵榨菜 0.46 0.75 研报

股票关注度

更多>>
股票名称关注度平均评级最新评级
贵州茅台 40 买入 买入
保利地产 34 买入 持有
完美世界 34 持有 买入
五粮液 32 持有 买入
伊利股份 31 持有 买入
完美世界 31 持有 买入
比亚迪 28 持有 持有
万华化学 27 持有 买入
瀚蓝环境 27 持有 持有
通威股份 27 买入 买入
五粮液 27 持有 买入
新宙邦 27 持有 买入
先导智能 27 持有 中性
保利地产 26 买入 持有
上汽集团 26 买入 中性
三一重工 25 持有 中性
瀚蓝环境 25 持有 持有

行业关注度

更多>>
行业名称关注度关注股票数买入评级数
电子信息 660 83 359
汽车制造 493 37 284
钢铁行业 458 29 271
电子器件 446 54 262
化工行业 420 46 169
金融行业 391 24 184
建筑建材 385 44 199
生物制药 326 53 169
酿酒行业 297 17 140
食品行业 295 23 112
房地产 287 25 220
机械行业 282 51 126
煤炭行业 275 28 118
家电行业 242 14 146
商业百货 220 29 124
酒店旅游 206 20 64
有色金属 194 38 59