Smartphone Casing:What does the supply chain look like for glass back cover?

类别:行业研究 机构:摩根大通证券(亚太)有限公司 研究员:摩根大通(亚太)研究所 日期:2016-06-30

In our previous reports, we highlighted that we expect a shift from 2.5D glassfront cover to 3D glass for the new iPhone in 2017, while the casing back coverwill also shift from unibody metal casing to 3D glass back cover casing. Thischange should lift the cover glass makers’ total TAM by 2x+. In this note, wefurther elaborate on what the supply chain looks like for 3D glass back cover. Webelieve this industry remains a duopolistic market.

    Duopolistic industry characteristics: The cover lens industry is dominated byBiel Crystal (not listed) and Lens Tech, where the duo represents over 70% ofglobal market share. Biel Crystal’s revenue size is ~1.5x that of Lens Tech. Webelieve Hon Hai (NR) group has shown interest in the space, but Hon Hai’ssubsidiary (G-tech, 3149 TT, NC) has witnessed shrinking revenue trends andwidening losses since 2013, despite its ambition to enter. Samsung Electronics(OW), on the other hand, has built its in-house capacity in Vietnam, but BielCrystal and Lens Tech remain significantly more experienced than any others.

    Meaningful capacity expansion expected: At present, we assume only the 5.8”iPhone next year will adopt 3D glass back cover. Whether Apple will expandthe 3D glass adoption to 4.7” back cover depends on capacity availability. Perour estimates, global capacity for 3D cover glass cover is ~10mn units/monthnow. To enable all iPhone 2017 new models to adopt 3D glass for the backcover, total capacity of 50mn units/month is needed, which would requireUS$600mn additional capex for the molding press tools that are specificallydesigned for 3D glass. With ongoing tight supply of 3D glass, the major coverlens makers are committed to capacity expansion by 50% minimum.

    Stock implications: We highly recommend Samsung (OW) which is a dominantleader in OLED and has its proprietary know-how on cover glass. Unibody metalcasing makers such as Catcher (OW) and BYD-E (OW) may see potentialnegative impacts on lower dollar content per box, but we believe Catcher isoversold as the dollar content impact maybe exaggerated by the market and itsmarket share gains more than enough to offset the ASP shortfall. Other Unibodymetal casing makers include Casetek (NC) and Foxconn Tech (NC).

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