AVIC Helicopter:Robust 2015Results Beat Due to 4Q15Strength

类别:公司研究 机构:摩根士丹利亚洲有限公司 研究员:Edward H Xu,Watson Lau,Yufei Wu 日期:2016-04-07

Opinion on results – Positive: AVIC Helicopter released robust net profitgrowth at 32% YoY to Rmb437m, beating our and consensus estimates by 9%and 5%, respectively. Notably, the growth momentum accelerated significantlyto 65% YoY in 4Q15 from 14.1% YoY in 3Q15, reflecting completion of neworders. The company recommended a DPS of Rmb2.5, implying 34% payoutratio, above our estimate of 25%.

    Opinion on revenues – Neutral: Although the 0.7% YoY increase in revenueswas below our expectation, we think this could be led by product mix changewith less low-end product orders. In fact, this should find support by significantmargin improvement. By product, aviation products revenue increased by 1%to Rmb12.3bn, while fans and other revenues dropped by 25% and 53% toRmb118m and Rmb9m respectively.

    Opinion on margins – Positive: Due to effective cost controls, cost of salesdecreased by 3.9% YoY to Rmb10.6hn, 17% below our estimate. Cost savingswere found in all segments: -3.7% /-29.9% /-6.5% YoY for aviationproducts/fans/others. As a result, GP increased by 37.4% YoY to Rmb1,919m,18% above our estimate. GP margin improved by 4.1ppt YoY to 15.3%.Especially, 4Q15 saw more significant improvement at 4.9ppt YoY to 16.4%, vs.13.0% (+2.0ppt) in 3Q15.

    Other income and costs – Positive: With 8.5% growth in selling expenses,25.8% growth in G&A expenses (led by a 25.6% surge in R&D cost) andsignificant impairment loss of Rmb150m (up from Rmb32m in 2014), OPincreased by 46% YoY to Rmb532m, 23% above our estimate. OP marginimproved by 1.3ppt to 4.2% in 2015, vs. 2.9% in 2014. Financial expensesincreased to Rmb24m in 2015, from Rmb9m in 2014, due to an increase ininterest expenses. Non-operating income decreased by 53.7% YoY toRmb20m, due to fewer government subsidies in 2015.

    Opinion on outlook – Positive: Given low penetration ratios of helicoptersand general aviation aircraft in China, we remain positive on the robustdemand outlook for military and civilian segments. With a near monopoly inChina’s military helicopter industry, AVIC Helicopter will continue to serve as aproxy for investors to gain exposure in this field. However, we continue to ratethe stock EW as the company is trading at a more expensive 46x 2016E P/E,slightly below industry peers at 53x, but significantly above AviChina's 23x andCAOT's 27x P/E.

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