Container Shipping:Liners gave back TP rate hikes;Asia-Europe volume still weak,-7%,TP volume +4%
Spot freight rates fell w/w as Asia-Europe rates continue to fall while linersgave back the rate hike achieved last week on Transpacific rates: TheShanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) fell 5% w/w for the weekending Oct 23. This was mainly driven by lower Transpacific rates as spotrates fell 15%/9% w/w on China-US West Coast and China-US East Coastroutes to $1,166/FEU and $2,163/FEU (implying no success on China-US WCand China-US EC routes vs planned rate hike of $600/FEU). Spot rates alsocontinued their downward trend on China-Europe routes (although the rate ofdecline moderated), slipping 1% w/w reaching US$231/TEU (sixth week ofdecline and only 13% away from its all-time low in Jun-15). This is the 11th ratehike attempt this year where the liners met with limited success. We are in thetraditional slack season of the year which could result in further downwardpressure on spot rates. More capacity cuts are needed to support freight rates ascapacity growth is still running ahead of demand. Liners continued to voidsailings with 13 void sailings in August (highest in 2015) and a further 11 voidsailings in Sep. The total capacity on the Asia-Europe trade will still be 2.6%higher y/y in 4Q15 vs 4.3% drop in demand in Jan-July. Another 71 vessels areexpected to be delivered in Oct-Dec, 2015, totaling 417K TEUS with Oct beingthe peak month at 35 vessels or 177K TEUs (source: Alphaliner, Clarksons),putting continued pressure on freight rates. However, spot rates rose 4% w/w onChina-Med routes. Intra-Asia spot rates were mixed w/w. Spot rates weresteady w/w on China-SE Asia/Taiwan/HK routes, fell 1%/5% w/w on China-WJapan/Korea routes and rose 1% w/w on China-E Japan routes. For longertrades, spot rates fell 1%/2% w/w on China-S America/E/W Africa routes androse 1%/7%/18% w/w on China-S Africa/Persian Gulf & Red Sea/Aus & NZroutes. Bunker fuel prices rose 1% w/w.
Spot rates fell 44% y/y: China-Europe rates fell 67%, China-Med rates fell78%; China-US EC and China-US WC rates fell 47%/45%. In Intra-Asia, ratesfell 3%/5%/14%/19%/20%/25% on China-HK/W Japan/Korea/Taiwan/EJapan/SE Asia routes. For longer trades, rates fell 17%/22%/23%/54%/89% y/yon China-E/W Africa/Aus & NZ/S Africa/Persian Gulf & Red Sea/S Americaroutes. Bunker fuel price rose 3% m/m but fell 49% y/y.
Recent news: 1) Maersk cut its FY15 guidance to US$ $3.4B from US$4.0Bdriven by its container division where the guidance was cut to US$1.6B fromUS$2.2B due to a disappointing peak season (Note). 2) 2M alliance announcedthe withdrawal of direct services on Asia-Black Sea routes, driven by lowertraffic and falling rates. 3) The G6 alliance announced the withdrawal of Asia-Europe/Med sailing in Nov/Dec driven by low demand during this slack season.
They also announced the suspension of Transatlantic service due to fallingfreight rates. 4) FE-US container trade volumes rose 4% y/y in Sep (YTD y/yrise was 5%). However, FE-Eur container trade volume fell 7% y/y in Aug (vsYTD y/y fall of 5%). 5) Contex charter rates fell 2% w/w, 11% m/m but rose9% y/y (source: JOC, Bloomberg).