CHINA COAL & POWER:Spot coal market to stabilize

类别:行业研究 机构:法国巴黎证券(亚洲)有限公司 研究员:Daisy Zhang,Penny Chen,Yong Liang Por 日期:2014-04-15

Spot coal price is still stable。

    Last week (9-14 April), QHD spot coal prices for 5,500kcal increased byRMB5/tonne to RMB535/tonne and 5,800kcal remained atRMB575/tonne. The Bohai Bay Coal Index price marginally increased byRMB 1/tonne to RMB 531/tonne, and mine-mouth price at Shanxi Datong& Inner Mongolia Ordos were unchanged. Despite the market expectingChina Shenhua to lift its 2Q14 contract coal price, Both Shenhua andChina Coal kept the same contract coal price as 1Q14 at aroundRMB548-549/tonne for 5,500kcal.

    QHD inventory level down with Daqin Rail maintenance。

    Coastal IPP inventory days expanded to 19.5 days from 18.2 days lastweek, as daily consumption declined 6.4% w-w. Inventory level wasstable. Coal inventory at QHD was down 11.3% w-w to 5.28mt, as railwayinflow declined 13.1% w-w, with Daqin Rail entering annual maintenance.

    The waiting queue is 80 vessels (down from 84 vessels last week), withanother 20 vessels scheduled to arrive.

    International coal price at a 5.9% discount on low freight rate。

    The Newcastle spot price declined 0.7% w-w to USD73.28/tonne and theRBCT price was up 2.8% to USD75.2/tonne. The international freight ratewas down 17% w-w and domestic freight rate down 7% w-w. As a result,the international price discount to domestic expanded to 5.9%, from 2.9%.

    March imported coal volumes down 3.3% y-y but up 10.8% m-m。

    March imported coal volumes fell 3.3% y-y but were up 10.8% m-m to25.29mt. The y-y decline was partly due to the small price discount as aresult of Shenhua’s low-price strategy targeting seaborne coal, while thesequential improvement is mainly due to seasonality. 3M14 imports stillgrew 5.0% y-y.

    2M14 power demand up 4.5% y-y。

    Power consumption was up 4.5% y-y in 2M14. Demand from primaryindustries fell 7.8% y-y, but grew 4.3% y-y from secondary industries and5.0% y-y from tertiary. Residential demand grew 6.3% y-y. Demand fromlight industries was only up 1.6% while demand from heavy industrieswas up 4.8% y-y. Power demand from the four high-energy-consumptionindustries was up 4.0%: demand from construction material was up 8.2%y-y, while that from the other three was only up 2-5%. Utilisation ofthermal power in 2M14 declined 1.7% y-y and that of hydro was down8.0% y-y. FAI in power sources fell 54.0% y-y, and FAI in power grid fell31.3% y-y in 2M14. In terms of regional power consumption, Beijing sawthe lowest growth of -2.7% and Xinjiang saw the highest growth of 22.2%.

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