ICBC:Large increase of intermediate business income with the deterioration of asset quality

类别:公司研究 机构:辉立证券(香港)有限公司 研究员:Xingyu Chen 日期:2014-03-06

Company Introduction。

    ICBC was founded in 1984, which is the largest listed bank inChina. ICBC was restructured to a joint-stock limited company andlisted on both A+H Shares on 27 Oct 2006. By the end of 2012,ICBC was the largest bank all over the world in terms of marketcapitalization, customer deposits and profitability. The Bank ownsobvious scale advantages, and currently records 16,648 domesticinstitutions, 239 overseas institutions and over 1,669correspondent banks worldwide with 4.11 million corporatebanking customers and 282 million personal banking customers.


    According to 3Q2013 results of ICBC (or the Group), bythe end of Sep, net profits achieved to RMB205.533billion, up 10.67% y-y, equivalent to the EPS ofRMB0.59. The profit growth dropped quarter by quarter;

    The decreased profit growth was mainly because of thedecrease of net interest incomes, which only increasedby 5.2% y-y in 3Q. However, the growth of intermediatebusiness incomes was higher than our expectation dueto the development of the market. As at the end of Sep,ICBC’s net fee and commission income increased by20% y-y to RMB95.593 billion, offset the negativeimpact from the decrease of the growth of interestincomes to some extant;8 Total assets increased by 6.84% to RMB18.74 trillioncompared to the end of 2012, remained stable growth,and equivalent to the BVPS of RMB3.51, up 9.19%;

    The asset quality of ICBC started to deteriorate causedby the large expansion of loans in recent years. By theend of 3Q, the NPL ratio increased by 0.06ppts to0.91%, and we expect it will increase to 0.93% in 2013.NPLs amounted to RMB87.361 billion, increased byRMB12.786 billion compared with the end of 2012.Meanwhile, and coverage ratio went down 26.68ppts to268.87%;

    The market concerns about the bank’s asset qualityrecently. In Jan 2014, ICBC involved in the crisis of trustdefault. There was a collective trust product issued byChina Credit Trust (CCT) with the amount of RMB3billion, and sold through ICBC branches, which nowdefaults. Some expect that both ICBC and CCT shouldtake 25% of the repayment each, and the remainingshould be paid by Shanxi’s government. We do notknow the confirmation of ICBC, and however, webelieve ICBC should take some responsibilities. Moreimportantly, we believe this event shows the riskexposure on domestic banks’ wealth managementproducts including ICBC. There are around RMB5.3trillion trust products at maturity this year, which cause

股票代码 股票名称 最新价(元) 涨跌额(元) 涨跌幅(%) 成交额(万元) 成交量(手)
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拉卡拉 买入 -- 研报
山东药玻 买入 -- 研报
中电环保 中性 -- 研报
贵州茅台 买入 1073.52 研报
中国人寿 买入 -- 研报
中国太保 买入 -- 研报
新华保险 买入 -- 研报
中国平安 买入 -- 研报
柳药股份 买入 42.00 研报
华泰证券 买入 -- 研报
招商证券 买入 -- 研报


拉卡拉 0 0 研报
山东药玻 0.67 0.51 研报
中电环保 0.60 0.51 研报
贵州茅台 7.35 12.49 研报


中信证券 35 持有 持有
贵州茅台 35 持有 买入
三一重工 33 持有 买入
华泰证券 28 持有 买入
上汽集团 27 买入 买入
隆基股份 27 买入 持有
五粮液 26 持有 持有
通威股份 25 买入 买入
贵州茅台 25 买入 买入
中国国旅 25 持有 持有
中顺洁柔 25 持有 买入
万科A 24 买入 中性
保利地产 23 买入 中性
恒瑞医药 23 买入 买入
伊利股份 23 持有 持有
芒果超媒 23 买入 持有
三一重工 22 持有 买入


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钢铁行业 337 28 210
化工行业 287 52 96
金融行业 260 24 122
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