ICBC:Large increase of intermediate business income with the deterioration of asset quality

类别:公司研究 机构:辉立证券(香港)有限公司 研究员:Xingyu Chen 日期:2014-03-06

Company Introduction。

    ICBC was founded in 1984, which is the largest listed bank inChina. ICBC was restructured to a joint-stock limited company andlisted on both A+H Shares on 27 Oct 2006. By the end of 2012,ICBC was the largest bank all over the world in terms of marketcapitalization, customer deposits and profitability. The Bank ownsobvious scale advantages, and currently records 16,648 domesticinstitutions, 239 overseas institutions and over 1,669correspondent banks worldwide with 4.11 million corporatebanking customers and 282 million personal banking customers.

    Summary。

    According to 3Q2013 results of ICBC (or the Group), bythe end of Sep, net profits achieved to RMB205.533billion, up 10.67% y-y, equivalent to the EPS ofRMB0.59. The profit growth dropped quarter by quarter;

    The decreased profit growth was mainly because of thedecrease of net interest incomes, which only increasedby 5.2% y-y in 3Q. However, the growth of intermediatebusiness incomes was higher than our expectation dueto the development of the market. As at the end of Sep,ICBC’s net fee and commission income increased by20% y-y to RMB95.593 billion, offset the negativeimpact from the decrease of the growth of interestincomes to some extant;8 Total assets increased by 6.84% to RMB18.74 trillioncompared to the end of 2012, remained stable growth,and equivalent to the BVPS of RMB3.51, up 9.19%;

    The asset quality of ICBC started to deteriorate causedby the large expansion of loans in recent years. By theend of 3Q, the NPL ratio increased by 0.06ppts to0.91%, and we expect it will increase to 0.93% in 2013.NPLs amounted to RMB87.361 billion, increased byRMB12.786 billion compared with the end of 2012.Meanwhile, and coverage ratio went down 26.68ppts to268.87%;

    The market concerns about the bank’s asset qualityrecently. In Jan 2014, ICBC involved in the crisis of trustdefault. There was a collective trust product issued byChina Credit Trust (CCT) with the amount of RMB3billion, and sold through ICBC branches, which nowdefaults. Some expect that both ICBC and CCT shouldtake 25% of the repayment each, and the remainingshould be paid by Shanxi’s government. We do notknow the confirmation of ICBC, and however, webelieve ICBC should take some responsibilities. Moreimportantly, we believe this event shows the riskexposure on domestic banks’ wealth managementproducts including ICBC. There are around RMB5.3trillion trust products at maturity this year, which cause

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