Data Flash:Asia Economic Diary,Oct 09-13

MAS to maintain its neutral policy stance as Singapore's GDP growth slowsslightly in Q3; Export data to improve in other parts of EM Asia

    Singapore’s GDP growth (advance estimate) is likely to moderate slightly to2.8%yoy in Q3, from 2.9% in Q2, largely due to weaker stocking. With inflationarypressure also remaining weak, we expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore(MAS) to maintain its neutral stance.

    China is likely to report stronger export growth of 7.9%yoy in September, vs.5.6% in August. With its import growth stronger, at 13.8% vs. 13.5% in the sameperiod, we expect China to report a narrower trade surplus of USD35.2bn inSeptember vs. USD41.9bn in August. We also see Taiwan and the Philippinesreporting stronger export data. In particular, we expect Taiwan's export growth toaccelerate to 16.6% in September, from 12.7% in August, while the Philippinessees its export growth rise to 11.0% in August from 10.4% in July. The latter'sindustrial production growth is also likely to rebound to +5.8% in August, from-1.1% in July.

    We also expect India to report slightly stronger industrial production growth of1.7% in August, vs. 1.2% in July, while its inflation is likely to rise further to 3.5%in September, from 3.4% in August, led by higher food prices.