US Daily Economic Notes:Is this time different?
Commentary for Wednesday: Over the last three months, the annualized rate ofchange of core inflation as measured by the consumer price index is a startling low0.048%. To put this into perspective, there have been only two other occasionssince 1965 when the three-month annualized growth rate of core inflation hasbeen lower. The last time it happened was the period from December 2009 toFebruary 2010 (-0.177%), and the time before that was from October 1982 toDecember 1982 (0.000%). In both of these instances, the economy was exitingrecession. Typically, the inflation rate plunges at the start of an economic recovery,due to significant labor and product market slack. However, this time is different.
The economy is about to enter its ninth year of the current recovery/expansion,and the unemployment rate is only 4.3%, its lowest reading in 16 years.