Data Flash:Asia Economic Diary

South Korea’s GDP (advance estimate) for Q3will likely be released on Thursdaynext week and we see it accelerating to 3.2% from 2.7% in Q2, led by a reboundin exports and sustained strength in facility investment, despite the ongoing risksfrom North Korea and its negative consequences on services exports.。

    We expect Vietnam to report a ytd positive trade balance of USD1.0bn in October,vs. a deficit of USD0.4bn in September, as export growth accelerate (to 20.6%from 19.8%) while import growth slows (to 21.7% from 23.1%) in the same period.Meanwhile, it is also likely to see stronger growth in retail sales (12.3% vs. 10.5%)and IP (13.5% vs. 13.2%) in October vs. September.。

    We expect a notable pick up in Vietnam’s CPI inflation in October, to 3.8%yoyfrom 3.4% in September, on the back of higher food prices. Meanwhile, HongKong and Singapore are likely to report a stable CPI inflation of 1.9% and 0.4%,respectively, in September. Hong Kong is likely to report a wider trade deficit ofHKD43.0bn in September, vs. HKD35.5bn in August, as the moderation in exportgrowth (to 5.0% from 7.4%) outpace that in import growth (5.5% vs. 7.7%).。

    Taiwan’s IP growth is also likely to accelerate to 4.5% in September, from 3.3%in August, as exports strengthen, while its unemployment rate falls to 3.7% inSeptember from 3.8% in August and M2growth rises slightly (to 4% from 3.8%)in the same period. While Singapore is likely to see some payback in its IP growthin September, moderating to 11.5%, after reporting over 20% growth in previoustwo months, its unemployment rate is likely to remain stable, but low at 2.2%in Q2.。

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