India Real Estate-Realty check:A sluggish entry into 2017
Absorption remains slow into 2017. Absorption in the top eight cities declined 21%y-o-y fiscal YTD January 2017 and 46% y-o-y in January but was up 7% m-o-m,while launches declined 47% y-o-y fiscal YTD and 80% y-o-y in January respectively.
Total inventory outstanding at 1,116msf is c60 months, based on the past threemonths of absorption rate. Recovery post demonetisation is still gradual and on anoverall basis, the sector remained weak. In the key cities, demand declined 37%fiscal YTD in Mumbai (down 59% y-o-y in January, up 5% m-o-m) and 30% fiscalYTD in Gurgaon (down 45% y-o-y in January, up 5% m-o-m). Southern markets alsoremained under pressure with Bengaluru witnessing a 20% fiscal YTD decline (down45% in January, up 2% m-o-m) and Chennai declining 11% fiscal YTD (down 20% inJanuary, up 24% m-o-m). Hyderabad has been relatively better, down 2% fiscal YTDand down 32% y-o-y in January, up 6% m-o-m.
Other interesting trends. The Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act(RERA) 2016 has now been approved by the Maharashtra chief minister DevendraFadnavis and comes into effect from May 1, 2017 as per Economic Times dated 22March 2017. The government is likely to amend the Employee Provident Fund (EPF)scheme which shall allow withdrawal up to 90% of the fund to make down-paymentsfor buying homes. This will benefit around 40 million members of Employee ProvidentFund Organisation (EPFO) as per Times of India dated 16 March 2017.
Our view on the sector. Please refer to our detailed India Real Estate reports,Cleaning house: Three cheers for change (27 January 2017) and Affordable Housinggoes mainstream (21 March 2017), in which we upgraded our sector view andoutlined how demonetisation, the Real Estate Regulatory Act (RERA), the BenamiTransactions (Prohibition) Amendment Act (BTPAA) and incentives by governmentmake the market more transparent, more user friendly for buyers, encourage demandand are favourable for reputable developers. Lower interest rates should also improveaffordability for buyers and reduce interest costs for developers.