Railcar &PetroChemical Update:US Chemical Shipments up 2.0%.Ethane up 5c/gal to 26c/gal
Railcar loadings 4-week moving avg up 2.0%. Weekly loadings down 3.0%
The 4-week moving average of chemical railcar loadings increased 2.0% inWeek #7 (ended 02/11/2017) vs. a 1.3% increase the prior week. Loadings YTDare down 0.9%. Chemical railcar loadings represent 30% of total US chemicalshipment tonnage (followed by trucks, barges, and pipelines), offering a trendof broader chemical industry activity and demand. The more volatile measureof weekly loadings declined 3.0% YoY (versus a 7.8% increase in the priorweek) and declined 6.5% sequentially (vs. a 6.4% increase in the prior week).
Ethane prices up 5 c/gal to 26 c/gal. Propane down 7 c/gal to 73 c/gal
Ethane prices rose 5 c/gal last week to 26 c/gal (vs its fuel value of 19 c/gal).While US ethane supply/demand (s/d) fundamentals remain loose, ethanerejection, which peaked at 500-600k bpd in 1H16, has declined following theSeptember start-up of Enterprise Products’ 200k bpd ethane export facility inHouston. Coupled with higher natural gas prices, ethane prices have nearlydoubled since the beginning of ‘16 (13.50 c/gal). Starting in 2H’17, we expectUS ethane s/d fundamentals to tighten further driven by 600k bpd of newdemand from the start-up of 8 greenfield ethylene crackers in ’17-’19. As themarket tightens, we expect ethane to trade toward its historical premium of~10c/gal vs its fuel value, with the premium reflecting fractionation,transportation and storage costs. Based on DB’s ’17 US Natural Gas priceforecast of $3.13/MMBtu, we estimate ethane prices will move toward 30 c/galby y/e ‘17.
Propane prices fell 7 c/gal last week to 73 c/gal. Similar to ethane, propane
prices are up sharply from their early ’16 lows (30-35 c/gal). Propaneinventories fell 6% last week to 53MM bbls and are 33% and 37% above their3 and 5-yr avgs, respectively. Longer term, we expect propane inventories todecline due to higher exports (+20% in ’16 vs up 12% in ‘15, up in ’17E).Spot ethylene prices down 3 c/lb to 34.13 c/lb. Margins down 2 c/lb to 20 c/lbSpot ethylene prices declined 3 c/lb last week to 34.13 c/lb (vs the Januarycontract price of 35.75 c/lb). Spot deals for February delivery range between30.0-38.25 c/lb with deals for March ranging between 30.0-34.0 c/lb. Averagespot ethylene margins compressed 2 c/lb last week to 20 c/lb on price declinesmore than offset lower production costs. Polymer grade (PG) propylene spotprices were higher last week with deals for February delivery of 46.25-47.0 c/lband deals for March delivery at 46.0 c/lb , up 2.63 c/lb from the prior week.
4.9% of North American ethylene capacity expected to be offline in February
IHS expects 4.9% of North American (NA) ethylene capacity to be offline inFebruary vs 3.9% in January. Per IHS, Chevron Phillips’ Sweeny, TX #33cracker (2.6% of NA ethylene capacity) and Formosa’s #2 Point Comfort, TXcracker (2.3% of NA ethylene capacity) are offline undergoing plannedturnaround work. For ’16 (per IHS) NA ethylene production losses totaled 4.6Blbs, or 5.7%, of capacity. This compares to ethylene production losses of 3.1Blbs, or 4.1%, of ethylene capacity in ’15. For ’17, IHS forecasts NA ethyleneproduction losses of 3.8B lbs, or 4.5%, of capacity.