Dry Bulk Shipping:Ship chartering activity and rates rose;annualized supply expected to grow only 1.4%this year
The BDI rose w/w, driven by higher rates across vessel segments: Capesizeearnings rose 4% w/w to $7.8K/day. Panamax earnings rose 9% w/w to$7.8K/day for the week ending July 15. Supramax/Handysize index also rose7%/3% w/w. One period fixture was concluded last week at $9.0K/day for 4-7months vs one period fixture concluded in the previous week at $9.0K/day for 6-9months. 1Y Capesize time-charter rate was steady w/w at $6.8K/day (source:Clarksons).
Forward curve points to higher rates in 3Q16 in all vessel segments: FFAindications for Capesize TC are at $8.5K/day in 3Q16 (current: $7.4K/day),$10.4K/day in 4Q16, $5.1K/day in 1Q17, $8.7K/day in 2017. FFA for PanamaxTC are at $6.7K/day for 3Q16 (current: $6.5K/day), $6.4K/day in 4Q16,$4.9K/day in 1Q17, $5.9K/day in 2017. FFA for Supramax TC are at $7.4K/dayfor 3Q16 (current: $7.1K/day), $6.9K/day in 4Q16, $5.0K/day in 1Q17,$6.1K/day in 2017. FFA for Handysize TC are at $6.7K/day for 3Q16 (current:$6.6K/day), $6.4K in 4Q16, $4.9K/day in 1Q17, $5.9K/day in 2017 (source:Clarksons, SSY).
Capesize chartering activity rose 18% w/w, but fell 29% y/y to 40 ships: 80%will carry iron ore (81% a week ago) and 20% coal (19%). Jan-Dec 2015 split:77% iron ore (76% in 2014), coal 20% (18%), others 3% (6%).
Rest of Asia’s share of shipping demand fell while Europe's share rose;China's share flattish: 70% of the Capesize vessels were chartered to carry cargoto China (from 71% a week ago), 93% carrying iron ore (95%) and 7% coal (5%).
Europe's share of demand rose to 18% (10%) and Rest of Asia's share fell to 12%(19%). In Jan-Dec 2015, the split was China 70% (vs 71% in 2014), rest of Asia14% (14%), Europe 15% (14%), other 1% (1%). JPM China Metals & Miningteam commented, “iron ore stocks at mills increased to 21.7 days of use (20.9days early late-June, historical average 26.0 days), while stocks at Chinese portsclimbed further by 0.9% to 105.4Mt or 33 days of use (from 104.5mt in late-Jun,historically 30 days).”Ship chartering activity rose in the Handymax vessel segment: In the Panamaxspot market, number of ships chartered fell 9% w/w to 41 vessels with coal/grainshipping demand driving 29%/32% of the ships chartered. The number of shipschartered rose 78% w/w for Handymax but fell 25% for Handysize.
Global bulk shipping capacity held steady m/m at 782.0MM dwt as at July 1:This is the 41st month of ≤1% m/m rise and implies only 1.4% growth annualized,well below the 8% growth implied by the orderbook. Scrapping removed 292 ships(22.1MM dwt) YTD (or c.5.7% of capacity annualized) but has tapered off a bit inJune, 2016 with total scrapping down 32% y/y (in terms of dwt) as freight ratesrecovered recently. Capesize drives most of the scrapping contributing 51% tot totalscrapping ytd. New ship orders have dried up (bulkcarrier contracts fell 68% y/y to250 ships in 2015 and 81% y/y in YTD 2016). Current orderbook implies 7.5%supply growth in 2016. However, like 2015, we believe net supply growth will bemuch lower (at 2.6% based on our estimates), driven by vessel delivery shortfalls(c.33% average in last 5 years). Potential bankruptcies could help remove someexcess capacity.