Association of Equipment Manufacturers:January 100HP+Tractor Retail Sales Down 36%YoY;Combines Up 19%YoY
The Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM) released industry unitretail sales for agricultural equipment in North America. Below are our keytakeaways
NA 100HP+ tractor retail sales down 36% YoY in January. For themonth of January, in the larger tractor segments, NA 100HP+ tractor salescame in at 1,981 units, down 36% YoY (down 35% in DE’s FQ1), while4WD unit tractor sales were up 10% YoY to 242 units (down 10% in DE’sFQ1). US retail sales of 100HP+ tractors were down 38% in January (vs.down 20% in Canada) and 4WD tractors down 9% (vs. up 148% inCanada). Total NA 2WD tractor retail sales in January were down 6% YoY(down 8% in DE’s FQ1), with the 40-100HP category down 5% partiallyoffset by <40HP up 11% YoY. Farmer sentiment remains very cautious asthe cash receipts outlook remains broadly negative.
NA combine retail sales up 19% YoY in January. Combine retail salesincreased 19% YoY in the month against easy comps to 457 units (down 4%in DE’s FQ1). US retail sales of combines were up 21% in January (vs.down 3% in Canada). This marks the first YoY increase in monthlycombine retail sales in NA since January 2014; however, we caution thatJanuary is not a seasonally strong month for combines so we are looking at asmall sample size and easy comps. The broader fundamentals areunchanged: with cash receipts declining, tax incentives are less importantthan they were in the up-cycle (many US row crop farmers struggled togenerate taxable profits to offset in 2015) and used prices remain undersignificant pressure. As a result, farmer sentiment towards purchasing newequipment remains weak and the outlook for 2016 remains bearish.
JPMe industry revenues down 19% in January, down 21% in DE’sFQ1. Based on our revenue model, industry revenues were down 19% inJanuary and down 21% in DE’s FQ1 (following a 22% decline in calendar2015). OEMs share a bleak outlook for the industry in NA in 2016: AGCOexpects industry tractor unit sales to be down 10%-15%; CNHI expectstractors to be down 5% and combines down 15%-20%; and DE expects agequipment industry volumes to be down 15%-20% in its FY'16.
Government-reported wholesale dollar shipments down 7% YoY inDecember against easy comps; down 3% in Q4. North American retailsales (in units) decreased 36% for 100HP+ tractors and increased 19% forcombines in January, according to AEM. In December (latest dataavailable), non-seasonally adjusted industry wholesale dollar shipments(released by the US Census Bureau) were down 7% YoY against easycomps. Shipments were down 3% YoY in calendar Q4 and down 39% in2015.