EM Macro and Strategy Focus

Economics Focus: In Asia, we expect South Korea’s Q4 preview GDP to rise to2.9%. In EMEA, we expect a 50bps hike in South Africa but Israel, Hungary,and Russia to remain on hold. Turkey’s inflation report will also be in focus. InLatam, Brazil’s main highlight will be the publication of the COPOM minutes. InColombia, we expect BanRep to deliver the fifth consecutive hike (25bp) toprevent further de-anchoring of inflation expectations and the activation ofindexation mechanisms. Slower economic growth reduces the likelihood of aprolonged tightening cycle in 1H16.

    Strategy Focus: The backdrop continues to be challenging for EM as the mix ofcommodity weakness, China’s lackluster growth and local policy developmentscontinue to weigh on FX and credit across the regions.