Commodities Comment:Steel consumption suffers through a mismatch in demand cycles
Feature article.
The global steel market is not a happy place at present. Amid weak demandconditions across key regional end markets and falling raw material quotes,developed world prices are back to levels last seen in H1 2009, with Chineseassessments even lower than that period. With order books struggling andmacroeconomic concerns returning, apparent demand growth rates havebeen falling fast, both in China and in the rest of the world. Production hasstarted to adjust, but has naturally lagged the demand cycle.
This process has been amplified by the fall in oil and gas capex over the pastquarter, which is already showing up in terms of lower steel apparentconsumption in certain petro-economies. This demand drop happens muchquicker than any consumption gains related to lower oil. Thus, while wewould expect YoY global steel consumption rates to by cycling higher into H2,helped by China, India and Europe, H1 2015 is set to see a negative YoYgrowth number, even assuming a sequential pick-up from current levels.
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After making a sharp move above $5,800/t on Tuesday, LME 3-month copperwas well bid again on Thursday (UK) morning, sparking a short covering rallyaround 8.15am that took the price from $5,827/t to $5,880/t in under tenminutes. From there the $5,900/t level was soon breached for the first timesince 13th January - the day before the major January price slide. Whilecompeting action from short covering and longs selling out then muffled therally at a peak of $5,944/t and brought the price back below $5,900/t by theclose, a significant psychological barrier seems to have been breached andthe market is looking with new interest at the potential for further upside. Thatsaid, we caution that there are some significant shorts remaining active in themarket, and today’s SHFE positioning data (referred to in our note fromWednesday) showed most of the highest ranking Chinese bear funds addingto their short positions in the Asian day trading session.
Hong Kong exported a net 76t of gold to China in January, trade datareleased on Thursday shows, slightly higher than the 72t exported inDecember though down on 90t in January 2014. Hong Kong is by far thelargest supplier of gold to China, the world’s biggest market, though in recentmonths the UK and Switzerland have also become important sources.
Switzerland exported 19t to China in January; the UK only reports next month.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics capex expectations survey was releasedon Thursday, and as expected shows a 20% decline in mining investmentlooks likely for FY15/16. As our Australian economist James McIntyre notes,this will take mining investment in the Australian economy back close toFY10/11 levels. However, with weakening FX, the USD impact will be evengreater. We currently expect a 20% YoY fall in global mining capex to$79bn in 2015, compared with a peak of $134bn in 2012. However, withmajor producers continuing to cut capex guidance, there is downside risk tothis number. Looking further out, the net result will be a further slowdown inmetals and bulk commodity supply growth rates.