What accounts for the resilience of the German economy?

类别:宏观经济 机构:Natixis Private Equity Asia Limited 研究员:Patrick Artus 日期:2014-06-12

Various forecasters expect quite strong growth of close to 2% in Germany in 2014. This resilience of the German economy may surprise, given that:

    - Despite the situation of near-full employment, real wages are hardly increasing, which is a result of German companies’ caution and the low level of productivity gains;

    - German growth is hugely reliant on exports; yet global trade is stagnant, and activity in the peripheral euro-zone countries is still depressed;

    - Germany's future population ageing can be expected to encourage saving and not consumption or housing purchases.

    So what may account (what accounts) for Germany's fairly strong growth?

    - Growth in employment (business services and construction);

    - Export market share gains and, as a result, the upturn in corporate investment;

    - The decline in households’ savings rate and the steep rise in their housing investment despite population ageing.

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