What accounts for the resilience of the German economy?
Various forecasters expect quite strong growth of close to 2% in Germany in 2014. This resilience of the German economy may surprise, given that:
- Despite the situation of near-full employment, real wages are hardly increasing, which is a result of German companies’ caution and the low level of productivity gains;
- German growth is hugely reliant on exports; yet global trade is stagnant, and activity in the peripheral euro-zone countries is still depressed;
- Germany's future population ageing can be expected to encourage saving and not consumption or housing purchases.
So what may account (what accounts) for Germany's fairly strong growth?
- Growth in employment (business services and construction);
- Export market share gains and, as a result, the upturn in corporate investment;
- The decline in households’ savings rate and the steep rise in their housing investment despite population ageing.