China’s Economy:Internet Thinking Explored from An Economics Perspective

类别:宏观经济 机构:中国光大证券(香港)有限公司 研究员:光大证券(香港)研究所 日期:2014-04-14

If we are to remove the buzzwords in China, “Internet thinking” mustbe on the list. This is largely to do with the success of Xiaomi mobilephones which Ju Lei, founder of Xiaomi, has boldly attributed toInternet thinking. After Xiaomi, the public has become very interestedin Internet thinking and hopes to use it to revolutionize other sectorsand replicate Xiaomi’s success. However, what exactly is Internetthinking? So far there does not seem to have a definitive answer.

    Many simply dismiss it as a publicity gimmick or Xiaomi marketinghype.

    We believe the confusion is caused by the absence of a cleardefinition of the Internet thinking concept itself. This is exactly whatthe author is trying to explain from an economics perspective.

    In the author’s mind, Internet thinking does exist. Once the Internet isbeing used in businesses, traditional marketing models andphilosophies are revolutionized. Strictly speaking, the so-calledInternet thinking is a business model emerging from a vastcustomer base which has experienced tremendous baseexpansion and cost reduction enabled by the Internet. Theguiding principle of Internet thinking is this: “Ordinary people isking, user experience is priority, and scale is key”. Next, we shallengage the supply and demand analytical tools in economics toelaborate.

    Any given type of goods (service may also be defined as goods),may be rated differently by different users. Customers who are reallyin need of the goods will be willing to pay higher price while thosewith weak desire will only be willing to pay lower price. Therefore, asthe price of a product (or service) increases, the number ofcustomers willing to pay for it will decrease. If we translate this in agraph with price and quantity as the two axis, we will have adownward sloping demand curve that we are all familiar with. On theother hand, companies usually face increasing marginal cost. Thelarger the output, the higher the selling price required to make up forthe higher cost. Graphically, this is an upward sloping supply curve.

    The intersection of the demand and supply curves represents theactual transaction quantity and price.

    Under traditional production technologies, marginal costs ofproduction rise rapidly. This is because companies have limitedcapacities. When utilization closes to the maximum capacity,machine impairment and labour cost will drastically increase. Thismay also be a result of the companies’ limited marketing capacity sothat it needs to bear higher cost to promote the goods to morepeople. No matter what the reasons are, the endgame is that thecompanies can only serve so many customers. If we represent thisgraphically, we will have a rather steep supply curve. Theintersection of this supply and demand curves will not be too faraway from the origin. Let’s call this the “near end” of the demandcurve (Figure 1).

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股票名称最新评级目标价研报
乐视网 持有 -- 研报
东方财富 中性 -- 研报
拓维信息 中性 -- 研报
博瑞传播 持有 -- 研报
百视通 中性 -- 研报
同洲电子 持有 -- 研报
粤传媒 中性 -- 研报
人民网 持有 -- 研报
凤凰传媒 中性 -- 研报
三六五网 中性 -- 研报
顺网科技 中性 -- 研报

盈利预测

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股票名称11年EPS12年EPS研报
东旭光电 0 0.32 研报
佐力药业 0.69 0.54 研报
新钢股份 0.26 -0.28 研报
航天电子 0.22 0.23 研报
中国卫星 0.34 0.34 研报
中航资本 0 0.38 研报
中航光电 0.48 0.56 研报
中航电子 0.45 0.38 研报
四川九洲 0.26 0.17 研报
光电股份 0.20 0.21 研报
中航动力 0.29 0.28 研报

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招商地产 48 持有 持有
保利地产 39 持有 持有
金地集团 39 持有 持有
万科A 39 持有 持有
荣盛发展 38 持有 持有
世联行 38 持有 持有
首开股份 34 持有 持有
山西汾酒 34 中性 减持
五粮液 34 持有 减持
贵州茅台 31 持有 买入
华夏银行 30 持有 买入
海螺水泥 30 持有 持有
招商地产 29 持有 持有
世联行 29 持有 持有
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长城汽车 29 持有 中性
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房地产 1294 73 341
电子信息 973 146 143
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商业百货 693 61 201
化工行业 540 84 143
电子器件 530 76 118
机械行业 510 101 222
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食品行业 484 37 195
家电行业 441 26 119
交通运输 403 46 167
服装鞋类 394 31 126
农林牧渔 391 27 124
煤炭行业 382 27 94
酒店旅游 365 23 181
建筑建材 361 51 108