China’s Economy:Internet Thinking Explored from An Economics Perspective

类别:宏观经济 机构:中国光大证券(香港)有限公司 研究员:光大证券(香港)研究所 日期:2014-04-14

If we are to remove the buzzwords in China, “Internet thinking” mustbe on the list. This is largely to do with the success of Xiaomi mobilephones which Ju Lei, founder of Xiaomi, has boldly attributed toInternet thinking. After Xiaomi, the public has become very interestedin Internet thinking and hopes to use it to revolutionize other sectorsand replicate Xiaomi’s success. However, what exactly is Internetthinking? So far there does not seem to have a definitive answer.

    Many simply dismiss it as a publicity gimmick or Xiaomi marketinghype.

    We believe the confusion is caused by the absence of a cleardefinition of the Internet thinking concept itself. This is exactly whatthe author is trying to explain from an economics perspective.

    In the author’s mind, Internet thinking does exist. Once the Internet isbeing used in businesses, traditional marketing models andphilosophies are revolutionized. Strictly speaking, the so-calledInternet thinking is a business model emerging from a vastcustomer base which has experienced tremendous baseexpansion and cost reduction enabled by the Internet. Theguiding principle of Internet thinking is this: “Ordinary people isking, user experience is priority, and scale is key”. Next, we shallengage the supply and demand analytical tools in economics toelaborate.

    Any given type of goods (service may also be defined as goods),may be rated differently by different users. Customers who are reallyin need of the goods will be willing to pay higher price while thosewith weak desire will only be willing to pay lower price. Therefore, asthe price of a product (or service) increases, the number ofcustomers willing to pay for it will decrease. If we translate this in agraph with price and quantity as the two axis, we will have adownward sloping demand curve that we are all familiar with. On theother hand, companies usually face increasing marginal cost. Thelarger the output, the higher the selling price required to make up forthe higher cost. Graphically, this is an upward sloping supply curve.

    The intersection of the demand and supply curves represents theactual transaction quantity and price.

    Under traditional production technologies, marginal costs ofproduction rise rapidly. This is because companies have limitedcapacities. When utilization closes to the maximum capacity,machine impairment and labour cost will drastically increase. Thismay also be a result of the companies’ limited marketing capacity sothat it needs to bear higher cost to promote the goods to morepeople. No matter what the reasons are, the endgame is that thecompanies can only serve so many customers. If we represent thisgraphically, we will have a rather steep supply curve. Theintersection of this supply and demand curves will not be too faraway from the origin. Let’s call this the “near end” of the demandcurve (Figure 1).

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投资评级

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股票名称最新评级目标价研报
人民网 持有 -- 研报
博瑞传播 持有 -- 研报
中文传媒 持有 -- 研报
华策影视 持有 -- 研报
乐视网 持有 -- 研报
奥飞动漫 持有 -- 研报
久其软件 中性 -- 研报
华润万东 买入 18.00 研报
洲明科技 持有 44.19 研报
掌趣科技 买入 19.51 研报
顺网科技 中性 21.55 研报

盈利预测

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股票名称11年EPS12年EPS研报
东材科技 0.80 0.33 研报
东睦股份 0.38 0.62 研报
亚太科技 0.51 0.92 研报
鑫富药业 0.11 -0.07 研报
安琪酵母 1.13 1.08 研报
利亚德 0.71 0.65 研报
威孚高科 2.42 1.50 研报
杉杉股份 0.40 0.42 研报
松芝股份 0.92 0.57 研报
中国汽研 0 0.41 研报
银轮股份 1.00 0.29 研报

股票关注度

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股票名称关注度平均评级最新评级
贵州茅台 37 持有 买入
保利地产 35 持有 持有
中炬高新 35 持有 持有
伊利股份 32 持有 持有
贵州茅台 31 持有 买入
金地集团 30 持有 减持
万科A 30 持有 持有
保利地产 29 持有 持有
兴业银行 29 持有 买入
交通银行 29 持有 买入
招商地产 29 持有 持有
东江环保 29 持有 持有
中信证券 28 持有 持有
老板电器 28 持有 持有
万科A 27 持有 持有
招商银行 27 持有 持有
中国银行 27 持有 中性

行业关注度

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行业名称关注度关注股票数买入评级数
电子信息 1128 153 288
金融行业 1101 44 313
房地产 908 62 338
生物制药 904 103 459
商业百货 784 62 344
化工行业 687 84 199
电子器件 642 75 207
交通运输 620 58 250
服装鞋类 594 33 208
食品行业 557 35 169
机械行业 531 99 176
家电行业 479 27 139
酿酒行业 469 18 126
煤炭行业 465 28 123
农林牧渔 454 36 109
汽车制造 437 49 124
建筑建材 416 52 87