China’s Economy:Internet Thinking Explored from An Economics Perspective

类别:宏观经济 机构:中国光大证券(香港)有限公司 研究员:光大证券(香港)研究所 日期:2014-04-14

If we are to remove the buzzwords in China, “Internet thinking” mustbe on the list. This is largely to do with the success of Xiaomi mobilephones which Ju Lei, founder of Xiaomi, has boldly attributed toInternet thinking. After Xiaomi, the public has become very interestedin Internet thinking and hopes to use it to revolutionize other sectorsand replicate Xiaomi’s success. However, what exactly is Internetthinking? So far there does not seem to have a definitive answer.

    Many simply dismiss it as a publicity gimmick or Xiaomi marketinghype.

    We believe the confusion is caused by the absence of a cleardefinition of the Internet thinking concept itself. This is exactly whatthe author is trying to explain from an economics perspective.

    In the author’s mind, Internet thinking does exist. Once the Internet isbeing used in businesses, traditional marketing models andphilosophies are revolutionized. Strictly speaking, the so-calledInternet thinking is a business model emerging from a vastcustomer base which has experienced tremendous baseexpansion and cost reduction enabled by the Internet. Theguiding principle of Internet thinking is this: “Ordinary people isking, user experience is priority, and scale is key”. Next, we shallengage the supply and demand analytical tools in economics toelaborate.

    Any given type of goods (service may also be defined as goods),may be rated differently by different users. Customers who are reallyin need of the goods will be willing to pay higher price while thosewith weak desire will only be willing to pay lower price. Therefore, asthe price of a product (or service) increases, the number ofcustomers willing to pay for it will decrease. If we translate this in agraph with price and quantity as the two axis, we will have adownward sloping demand curve that we are all familiar with. On theother hand, companies usually face increasing marginal cost. Thelarger the output, the higher the selling price required to make up forthe higher cost. Graphically, this is an upward sloping supply curve.

    The intersection of the demand and supply curves represents theactual transaction quantity and price.

    Under traditional production technologies, marginal costs ofproduction rise rapidly. This is because companies have limitedcapacities. When utilization closes to the maximum capacity,machine impairment and labour cost will drastically increase. Thismay also be a result of the companies’ limited marketing capacity sothat it needs to bear higher cost to promote the goods to morepeople. No matter what the reasons are, the endgame is that thecompanies can only serve so many customers. If we represent thisgraphically, we will have a rather steep supply curve. Theintersection of this supply and demand curves will not be too faraway from the origin. Let’s call this the “near end” of the demandcurve (Figure 1).

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股票名称最新评级目标价研报
老板电器 中性 -- 研报
东方国信 中性 27.00 研报
宝通带业 中性 -- 研报
光线传媒 持有 -- 研报
数字政通 持有 -- 研报
铁龙物流 持有 10.00 研报
万丰奥威 持有 -- 研报
惠博普 持有 18.00 研报
平安银行 买入 12.48 研报
长盈精密 中性 -- 研报
光线传媒 持有 -- 研报

盈利预测

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股票名称11年EPS12年EPS研报
老板电器 0.84 0.94 研报
东方国信 1.41 0.89 研报
光线传媒 1.49 1.16 研报
铁龙物流 0.43 0.41 研报
宝通带业 0.37 0.57 研报
数字政通 0.90 0.79 研报
惠博普 0.51 0.39 研报
万丰奥威 0.60 0.63 研报
平安银行 1.86 2.02 研报
长盈精密 0.92 0.92 研报
骆驼股份 0.79 0.64 研报

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保利地产 39 持有 持有
万科A 35 持有 持有
招商地产 35 持有 持有
贵州茅台 34 持有 买入
中炬高新 34 持有 持有
伊利股份 34 持有 买入
金地集团 32 中性 中性
兴业银行 32 持有 持有
招商地产 31 持有 持有
南京银行 31 持有 买入
荣盛发展 31 持有 中性
交通银行 29 持有 减持
罗莱家纺 28 持有 持有
洋河股份 28 持有 减持
长城汽车 27 持有 买入
富安娜 27 持有 中性
万科A 26 持有 持有

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生物制药 914 100 530
房地产 867 74 373
金融行业 839 44 301
电子信息 782 145 162
商业百货 565 63 240
交通运输 473 57 212
电子器件 473 78 158
化工行业 392 77 139
机械行业 356 92 132
食品行业 350 36 105
煤炭行业 330 29 71
服装鞋类 317 30 98
建筑建材 300 46 45
汽车制造 299 45 119
农林牧渔 273 33 66
传媒娱乐 267 24 84
家电行业 252 22 58