Property Alert:Soufun 100-city home price index up 0.92% MoM in Aug 2013
The China Index Academy, a research institute of Soufun, published a reportyesterday saying that the average 100 cities’ home prices rose 0.92% MoM inAug to RMB10,442psm, up for the fifteenth consecutive month since Jun2012.
71 cities are showing MoM increases in ASPsAmong the 100 cities, 71 cities saw MoM growth and 29 saw MoM declines(Jul 2013: 61 saw MoM growth and 39 saw MoM declines while 0 city wasflat). In YoY terms, 100 cities' home prices rose 8.61% YoY in Aug -representing the nineth consecutive month of positive YoY change afterprevious declines of eight consecutive months noted during 2012. In addition,90 cities registered YoY increase in Jul while 9 cities registered YoY declines(Jul 2013: 89 cities up, 10 cities down). ASPs in Fuzhou were among thestrongest in the 100 cities, up 3.92% MoM.
Tier-1/2 cities continues to show strong MoM price increasesOut of the cities with the largest MoM home price, Fuzhou and Xuzhou wereup 3.92% and 3.66% respectively; for MoM home price declines Wuhu ledwith -2.29%. The 10 largest cities all saw MoM home price increases in Aug,with prices in Beijing and Wuhan up 3.22% MoM and 2.16% MoMrespectively. Also, home price increases in Tier-1 cities continued into Aug,with average MoM increase recorded at 1.84% in Aug (up 16.93% YoY). MoMincrease in home prices for Tier-2 cities was up 0.78% (+5.1% YoY). ASP forTier-3/4 cities was up 0.15% MoM and up 4.77% YoY.
Property tax scheme to expand in Oct 2013 focusing on new unitsJRJ reported that during NDRC's work progress report presentation by XuShaoshi, NDRC chairman, at the National People's Congress meeting lastweek, the expansion of the property tax scheme was specifically mentioned asthe Commission's 2H13 work focus. MOF minister Lou Jiwei also mentionedthe expansion of property tax scheme during MOF's work progresspresentation. The concerted comments made by the heads of 2 key statedepartments fuelled media predictions that the property tax expansion schemewill come shortly after Oct 2013.
China economy regaining momentum. On China property, we are positive, butbe selectiveWith the central government’s well planned reform, and with the plan for newformurbanization and agricultural modernization, we see stronger housingdemand and high market potential for end-user commodity residentialproperties in Tier-2-4 cities. Our top picks are COLI, CR Land, Shimao, CountryGarden, R&F, Kaisa. For social housing, shanty town improvements, our topBuy is CSCI. However, with land prices rising faster than home prices in Tier-1/big Tier-2 cities, more administrative tightening, we see high re-investmentrisks and long-term margin pressure for those high-end developers in Tier-1cities, and our top Sells are Sunac, Yanlord and Sino Ocean. Key risks:unexpected economic volatility and policies.