China Healthcare:CSPC,Luye &Sinobiopharm shined in Fujian

类别:行业研究 机构:国信证券(香港)金融控股有限公司 研究员:Jason Siu 日期:2017-12-18

Pfizer’s Lipitor stayed as top-selling drugs in Fujian procurement.

    Recently, Fujian’s controlled procurement website for drugs (福建省药品联合限价阳光采购网药品) published its top 20 best selling medicines by hospital salesvalue from Sept to Nov 2017. We believe that Fujian’s current drug tender biddingshave already referenced to (1) the grouping of drug type and format; (2) reducedgovernment reimbursement amount; and (3) “Two Invoice System” for distributors.

    We do not aware too big of the drug price cut on the existing list. Its #1 best sellingdrug has been to Pfizer’s Lipitor 立普妥 (Atorvastatin) for three consecutivemonths, which is a well-known statin based cholesterol-lowering medicine. In 2017,Lipitor’s tender price in Jiangsu province for 40mg pack stands at RMB15.6, about38% premium to two packs of 20mg tablet format of the same ingredient fromBeijing Jialin Pharma (北京嘉林药业) of Ah Le (阿乐) (RMB5.6/20mg).

    Pfizer’s antibiotics ranked at least top #3.

    Note that, in 2016, Fujian provincial drug sales of RMB34.5bn made up 1.9% f thecountry’s total, which was ranked #18 in China. Sales of another medicine fromPfizer called Cefoperazone Sodium and Sulbactam Sodium for Injection (注射用头孢哌酮钠舒巴坦钠) was also ranked either top #2 and #3 position during theperiod. It is a mix of cephalosporin and beta-lactam based antibiotics. The tenderprice of this antibiotics in Guizhou at RMB67.2/ 1.5g is as much as 593% premiumto that of CSPC’s (1093.HK, NR) generic version of the same format, whosepackage contains 3.0g of the drug content at RMB19.4 each in Jiangsu Province.

    Key drugs from CSPC, Luye and Sinobiopharm in Fujian league table.

    Only three HK listed drug-makers’ medicines could hit the top 20 position in thisFujian procurement, namely (1) CSPC’s NBP 恩必普 (Butylphthalide Soft Capsule丁苯酞软胶囊); (2) Luye Pharm’s (2186.HK, BUY, TP:HKD5.40) Beixi 贝希(Acarbose soft capsule 阿卡波糖胶囊); and (3) Sinobiopharm’s (1177.HK, NR)Kaifen 凯纷(Flurbiprofen Axetil Injection 氟比洛芬酯注射液). NBP, a heart &brain medicine (to treat acute ischemic stroke) from CSPC, had over 38% and 33%y-o-y sales growth in 2016 and 9M17 respectively, at HKD2.7bn and HKD2.6bn.

    NBP sales made up 21%-23%/55% of CSPC’s total revenue and total innovativedrug sales respectively during both 2016 and 9M17.

    Luye’s Beixi sales heading to 41%/30% y-o-y in FY17F-18F.

    On our forecast, Luye’s Beixi as a diabetic cure, which will make up 20%/22% ofFY17F-18F Luye’s revenue, is seen to jump 41%/30% y-o-y in this and next year(FY16: 30%). Beixi stunning sales growth has been exemplified in 1H17 at 41% y-o-y.

    On the other hand, Kaifen injections from Sinobiopharm as an anti-inflammatoryand analgesic medicine in respiratory area, had already booked 24%/17% y-o-ysales growth in FY15-16. Moreover, as we flagged in our 23 November 2017 report,Fujian province had sent out a consultation paper, that it will join hands withShanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui and Zhenjiang provinces for centralized and vastprocurement of medicines on multi-provincial basis. We see this may led to lowerdrug tender prices than the usual level.

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楚江新材 中性 -- 研报
新城控股 买入 -- 研报
华夏幸福 买入 -- 研报
保利地产 买入 -- 研报
招商蛇口 买入 -- 研报
万科A 买入 -- 研报
中国电影 买入 -- 研报
长江传媒 买入 -- 研报
顺网科技 买入 -- 研报
游族网络 买入 -- 研报
精工钢构 买入 4.20 研报

盈利预测

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股票名称11年EPS12年EPS研报
楚江新材 0.26 0.22 研报
华夏幸福 2.23 2.13 研报
招商蛇口 0 0 研报
新城控股 0 0 研报
保利地产 1.11 1.17 研报
万科A 0.84 1.03 研报
长江传媒 0.25 0.30 研报
游族网络 0.03 0.10 研报
中国电影 0 0 研报
姚记扑克 0.75 1.03 研报
当代明诚 0.28 0 研报

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股票名称关注度平均评级最新评级
贵州茅台 35 持有 中性
万科A 34 买入 买入
五粮液 34 持有 买入
中信证券 32 持有 持有
海天味业 30 持有 买入
通威股份 27 持有 买入
伊利股份 27 持有 持有
万科A 27 买入 买入
三一重工 26 持有 买入
隆基股份 26 买入 买入
泸州老窖 26 持有 买入
中信证券 24 持有 持有
保利地产 24 买入 买入
上汽集团 24 持有 买入
首旅酒店 24 持有 买入
中国国航 24 持有 买入
格力电器 24 持有 持有

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行业名称关注度关注股票数买入评级数
电子信息 553 96 324
建筑建材 493 48 207
化工行业 486 53 160
钢铁行业 416 30 195
机械行业 393 50 161
汽车制造 368 38 203
金融行业 364 32 127
生物制药 320 54 213
电子器件 313 53 184
煤炭行业 299 30 147
家电行业 294 17 150
交通运输 287 30 130
房地产 265 27 164
酿酒行业 257 17 120
电力行业 228 32 97
食品行业 203 21 88
酒店旅游 194 19 75