China Healthcare:CSPC,Luye &Sinobiopharm shined in Fujian

类别:行业研究 机构:国信证券(香港)金融控股有限公司 研究员:Jason Siu 日期:2017-12-18

Pfizer’s Lipitor stayed as top-selling drugs in Fujian procurement.

    Recently, Fujian’s controlled procurement website for drugs (福建省药品联合限价阳光采购网药品) published its top 20 best selling medicines by hospital salesvalue from Sept to Nov 2017. We believe that Fujian’s current drug tender biddingshave already referenced to (1) the grouping of drug type and format; (2) reducedgovernment reimbursement amount; and (3) “Two Invoice System” for distributors.

    We do not aware too big of the drug price cut on the existing list. Its #1 best sellingdrug has been to Pfizer’s Lipitor 立普妥 (Atorvastatin) for three consecutivemonths, which is a well-known statin based cholesterol-lowering medicine. In 2017,Lipitor’s tender price in Jiangsu province for 40mg pack stands at RMB15.6, about38% premium to two packs of 20mg tablet format of the same ingredient fromBeijing Jialin Pharma (北京嘉林药业) of Ah Le (阿乐) (RMB5.6/20mg).

    Pfizer’s antibiotics ranked at least top #3.

    Note that, in 2016, Fujian provincial drug sales of RMB34.5bn made up 1.9% f thecountry’s total, which was ranked #18 in China. Sales of another medicine fromPfizer called Cefoperazone Sodium and Sulbactam Sodium for Injection (注射用头孢哌酮钠舒巴坦钠) was also ranked either top #2 and #3 position during theperiod. It is a mix of cephalosporin and beta-lactam based antibiotics. The tenderprice of this antibiotics in Guizhou at RMB67.2/ 1.5g is as much as 593% premiumto that of CSPC’s (1093.HK, NR) generic version of the same format, whosepackage contains 3.0g of the drug content at RMB19.4 each in Jiangsu Province.

    Key drugs from CSPC, Luye and Sinobiopharm in Fujian league table.

    Only three HK listed drug-makers’ medicines could hit the top 20 position in thisFujian procurement, namely (1) CSPC’s NBP 恩必普 (Butylphthalide Soft Capsule丁苯酞软胶囊); (2) Luye Pharm’s (2186.HK, BUY, TP:HKD5.40) Beixi 贝希(Acarbose soft capsule 阿卡波糖胶囊); and (3) Sinobiopharm’s (1177.HK, NR)Kaifen 凯纷(Flurbiprofen Axetil Injection 氟比洛芬酯注射液). NBP, a heart &brain medicine (to treat acute ischemic stroke) from CSPC, had over 38% and 33%y-o-y sales growth in 2016 and 9M17 respectively, at HKD2.7bn and HKD2.6bn.

    NBP sales made up 21%-23%/55% of CSPC’s total revenue and total innovativedrug sales respectively during both 2016 and 9M17.

    Luye’s Beixi sales heading to 41%/30% y-o-y in FY17F-18F.

    On our forecast, Luye’s Beixi as a diabetic cure, which will make up 20%/22% ofFY17F-18F Luye’s revenue, is seen to jump 41%/30% y-o-y in this and next year(FY16: 30%). Beixi stunning sales growth has been exemplified in 1H17 at 41% y-o-y.

    On the other hand, Kaifen injections from Sinobiopharm as an anti-inflammatoryand analgesic medicine in respiratory area, had already booked 24%/17% y-o-ysales growth in FY15-16. Moreover, as we flagged in our 23 November 2017 report,Fujian province had sent out a consultation paper, that it will join hands withShanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui and Zhenjiang provinces for centralized and vastprocurement of medicines on multi-provincial basis. We see this may led to lowerdrug tender prices than the usual level.

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中科三环 持有 -- 研报
中国石油 中性 -- 研报
恒华科技 持有 -- 研报
北新建材 买入 -- 研报
双汇发展 买入 -- 研报
伊利股份 买入 -- 研报
佳力图 持有 -- 研报
华体科技 买入 -- 研报
烽火通信 买入 -- 研报
中际旭创 买入 -- 研报
天源迪科 持有 -- 研报

盈利预测

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股票名称11年EPS12年EPS研报
中科三环 1.00 1.66 研报
中国石油 0.77 0.71 研报
恒华科技 0 0 研报
北新建材 0.93 1.16 研报
双汇发展 1.70 2.88 研报
伊利股份 0.95 1.08 研报
三维通信 0.61 0.45 研报
华体科技 0 0 研报
沪电股份 0.46 0.28 研报
光迅科技 0.95 0.90 研报
中际旭创 0.00 0.70 研报

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股票名称关注度平均评级最新评级
中国国旅 35 持有 持有
中信证券 32 持有 买入
用友网络 31 持有 持有
伊利股份 31 持有 买入
三一重工 25 持有 买入
中国平安 25 持有 中性
双汇发展 25 持有 买入
当升科技 25 持有 持有
宋城演艺 25 持有 持有
先导智能 25 持有 买入
上汽集团 24 买入 持有
通威股份 24 买入 买入
贵州茅台 23 持有 买入
伊利股份 23 持有 买入
新华保险 23 持有 买入
中航机电 23 持有 买入
天虹股份 23 买入 买入

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行业名称关注度关注股票数买入评级数
电子信息 558 98 305
化工行业 320 55 128
生物制药 316 54 183
汽车制造 314 37 173
金融行业 280 27 124
电子器件 265 49 149
建筑建材 237 47 128
机械行业 224 50 115
房地产 182 28 101
电力行业 158 30 61
商业百货 154 26 80
服装鞋类 153 20 78
食品行业 148 24 75
酒店旅游 148 19 62
钢铁行业 135 22 57
交通运输 134 27 67
农林牧渔 131 25 49